If you look at the sum of the Orioles offseason moves against their peers so far, what would you think they are competing for?
Best acquisition of an overseas veteran? Best job of replacing one key piece for another that’s about just as good? The longest streak without awarding a bad multiyear contract? Savviest use of minor league deals?
The Orioles may well be accumulating accolades that no one has ever cared enough to make trophies for. But it sure doesn’t look like they’re trying to win a World Series.
The baseball offseason isn’t over, and Baltimore still has time to spark the imagination with the kind of trade they spun last February when they acquired Corbin Burnes. But with many of the most compelling free agents (including Burnes) off the board, we’re nearly past the pivotal period when all it costs to get the best talent is money.
Did the Orioles add pieces? Yes. Did they add payroll? Yes.
Is it the kind of inspiring, over-the-top talent that will help them compete with the Yankees and the Dodgers? Sure doesn’t seem like it.
Read More
You might describe the acquisitions of guys like outfielder Tyler O’Neill, Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano and Gary Sanchez with complimentary adjectives like “astute” or “shrewd.” They’re mostly in the mold of the low-risk, short-term deals that the club likes because the outcomes are more predictable.
But none of these guys look like they’ll push the Orioles from a team that is 0-5 in the playoffs across two seasons to a true World Series contender. I’d be surprised if Baltimore’s front office felt that way about any of their free agents internally.
I’ve consistently wondered if the Orioles are bold enough when it comes to making this competitive club into a World Series winner. I don’t doubt the sincerity of Elias, the ownership and the rest of the lever-pullers in the warehouse — they definitely want to win, and they take the responsibility of managing this bright era of Orioles baseball very seriously.
But for some reason that is increasingly difficult to understand, the emphasis appears to be in the method instead of the results.
Everyone and their mother knows the Orioles, if they’re serious about competing, need a new ace. Everyone knows that the lineup got exposed two years running in the postseason. And yet Baltimore continues to work in the margins rather than getting the best guys available to directly address those concerns.
Most of the moves amount to piece-for-piece swaps — O’Neill for Anthony Santander, Sanchez for James McCann — and hoping internal development will somehow compensate for the obvious shortcomings come October.
World Series-caliber moves are inherently risky and costly. What did the Dodgers do right after winning the title? They signed Blake Snell to a five-year, $182 million deal. The back end of the deal might hurt for the 32-year-old left-hander, but winning is expensive. More importantly, it’s worth the cost.
The rank-and-file fans want to see the Orioles win a World Series for the first time since 1983. They don’t care if the front office proves that they’re the smartest guys in the process. They don’t need Elias and company to reinvent the winning formula specifically for small market teams — they just want to see a winner, period.
A bit of a caveat here: I don’t necessarily think the Orioles are at fault for losing Burnes. In reporting confirmed by The Banner, Baltimore made a competitive offer to keep their ace. But it always felt like a long shot, considering Burnes has a home in Arizona (where he eventually signed) and a young family there. His mind might not have been made up back in October, when he hugged teammates goodbye and gave Gunnar Henderson his signed jersey, but it certainly looked like a more permanent farewell even at the time.
But even if you excuse failing to re-sign Burnes (and a significant chunk of this fan base won’t), you absolutely have to lay the underwhelming backup plan at the Orioles’ feet.
I think we can safely say Morton, 41, doesn’t have much upside. Sugano, at 35, probably is limited. Both project as back-of-the-rotation starters, which is fine for depth, but doesn’t mean much for a best-of-five game series. Barring a miraculous return to form for Kyle Bradish at the midseason mark, this rotation will be less formidable than last season.
Even if the Orioles were uncomfortable trying to, say, spend at the level of Max Fried (eight years, $218 million) or Snell, it’s difficult to justify letting some of the mid-tier options that might have helped — Yusei Kikuchi or Nathan Eovaldi or Sean Manaea — take flight elsewhere.
Maybe the Orioles can still grab somebody exciting in a trade … but it’s not encouraging that under new ownership and with every intent to win now, the Orioles have had the third-best offseason in their own division. The Red Sox traded for Garrett Crochet and signed Walker Buehler, and they didn’t even make the playoffs last season.
It’s somewhat ironic that the careful, studied discipline it required to get the Orioles to this point now must be shelved to throw more caution to the wind. But working in the margins is not going to win a World Series for Baltimore, even if we have all the faith in homegrown stars like Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg and Grayson Rodriguez taking another step. There’s nothing preventing the Orioles from supplementing their young talent with bonafide title pieces, except their own willingness to spend and gamble on bigger and longer deals.
There’s inherent risk in playing it safe, too — the risk that you won’t win the World Series with a talented roster. If the Orioles are serious about their title ambitions, they have to make moves that aim just as high.
You might get other, imaginary contrived titles. But there’s only one trophy that makes everyone want throw a parade, and the Orioles aren’t any closer to that now than when this offseason started.
Comments
Welcome to The Banner's subscriber-only commenting community. Please review our community guidelines.