Check out our free agency previews for backup catchers and outfielders.
How do you replace Corbin Burnes? The truth is, you don’t.
If the four-time All-Star leaves Baltimore in free agency, no one the Orioles bring in this winter will be able to provide the dominance — 2.92 ERA, 3.4 WAR, per Baseball Reference, and volume — 32 starts, 194 1/3 innings — that Burnes did.
There are ways in which the O’s can compensate for his absence, however. It starts with getting injured starters Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells back (at some point) in 2025, plus full seasons from Zach Eflin (acquired at the deadline) and Grayson Rodriguez (missed time with a lat strain). And if you squint, you could see some combination of Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott and Brandon Young giving this team a handful of quality innings.
But as has been the case each offseason since he arrived, Mike Elias will need to add a piece (or two) to the rotation. They could opt for another trade — Garrett Crochet, anyone? — but with a farm system that is no longer considered the sport’s best, free agency could provide an easier pathway to finding talent.
On this list, you’ll find several former Cy Young winners on the backside of their careers, hoping to sign one final contract before riding off into the sunset. But that might be just what the O’s are looking for: a steady veteran with playoff experience who doesn’t require a lengthy contract. Here are seven right-handers who fit that bill.
Nathan Eovaldi
2025 age: 35
2024 stats: 12-8, 3.80 ERA, 2.3 WAR in 170 2/3 innings
The Orioles know Eovaldi well, both from his five seasons with the Red Sox as well as his dominant start in Game 3 of the 2023 American League Divisional Series as a member of the Rangers. Eovaldi has been an excellent playoff performer for years, going back to his World Series run with Boston in 2018, when the righty allowed just four earned runs over 22 1/3 innings that postseason.
Despite his age, Eovaldi should find his services in relatively high demand this winter, which is why he declined his $20 million option for 2025. He wasn’t an All-Star in 2024, but he still gave the Rangers 29 starts with a solid 3.80 ERA. A Houston native, Eovaldi could end up sticking in Texas on a more lucrative deal.
Justin Verlander
2025 age: 42
2024 stats: 5-6, 5.48 ERA, -0.3 WAR in 90 1/3 innings
Did you know Mike Elias actually came from the Houston Astros front office that traded for Verlander in 2017? You learn something new every day.
In all seriousness, Elias has shown a penchant for going into his Rolodex to find players: count Rio Ruiz, Tony Kemp, Brett Phillips, Thomas Eshelman, Jacob Nottingham and Daz Cameron among the former Astros draft picks who eventually found their way to the Orioles organization. Verlander, of course, has racked up more accomplishments than that entire list put together, but Father Time may have finally caught up to the three-time Cy Young winner.
Verlander, 41, dealt with shoulder and neck problems in 2024, making just 17 starts and posting a 5.48 ERA. He still feels he has “a lot more to give,” but his Statcast page begs to differ. If the O’s believe the 2011 AL MVP has something left in the tank, Elias could give him one more shot.
Charlie Morton
2025 age: 41
2024 stats: 8-10, 4.19 ERA, 1.1 WAR in 165 1/3 innings
Morton is another elder statesman whose best days are behind him. Still, the 41-year-old has given the Braves at least 30 starts a year since he signed in Atlanta before the 2021 season, and his strikeout rates — almost 24% in 2024 — remain above the league average.
Morton has (understandably) relied more on his breaking pitches as he’s aged, throwing his curveball a whopping 42% of the time this past season. It has worked, too: Opposing hitters produced a paltry .309 slugging percentage off the pitch. The righty’s track record in the playoffs is impressive — 3.60 ERA in 80 postseason innings — and the Orioles might enjoy working with his quirky repertoire in their pitching lab.
Shane Bieber
2025 age: 30
2024 stats: 2-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.7 WAR in 12 innings
Had the Orioles not acquired Corbin Burnes last February, they might have dealt for Bieber, who was nothing but stellar in his first six seasons in Cleveland. It’s a good thing they didn’t, though, because Bieber underwent elbow surgery after just two starts in 2024 and missed the remainder of the season.
Even before his injury, Bieber’s effectiveness had started to wane. Like Burnes, Bieber had seen his strikeout rate dip each season since 2021. But while Burnes has still found ways to induce soft contact, Bieber hasn’t, producing a ghastly 48% hard-hit rate in 2023. If the Orioles believe the old Bieber is still in there, they might make an offer. Otherwise, handing the 2020 Cy Young winner a long-term deal could be too dicey for this risk-averse front office.
Max Scherzer
2025 age: 40
2024 stats: 2-4, 3.95 ERA, 0.4 WAR in 43 ⅓ innings
Scherzer’s injury history should scare any general manager looking to sign him. In a year and a half with the Rangers, Scherzer missed time with shoulder, back, arm and hamstring ailments. “Mad Max” made just nine starts in 2024, his fewest total since his rookie season. Even more concerning was his average fastball velocity, which dipped under 93 mph for the first time in his career.
All of these factors make Scherzer one of the riskier free agents on the market. If the Orioles were to sign the eight-time All-Star, they’d likely still need to add another arm or two as insurance.
Michael Lorenzen
2025 age: 33
2024 stats: 7-6, 3.31 ERA, 2.6 WAR in 130 1/3 innings
Lorenzen is giving new meaning to the term “journeyman.” The former two-way player has been a steady, if unspectacular (no-hitter notwithstanding) pitcher for five teams — the Angels, Tigers, Phillies, Rangers and Royals — since the start of the 2022 season. He was a deadline acquisition in both 2023 and 2024, but didn’t earn the trust of his new teams to start postseason games.
If the Orioles are looking for more rotation depth in 2025 — which would be understandable, given the number of injuries they suffered through in 2024 — Lorenzen would be a fine addition, as the righty has topped 130 innings each of the last two years. But they shouldn’t expect much from him come October.
Luis Severino
2025 age: 31
2024 stats: 11-7, 3.91 ERA, 1.6 WAR in 182 innings
At one point in his career, Severino was one of the best young pitchers in the game, posting back-to-back 4+ WAR seasons with the Yankees in 2017 and 2018. But a disastrous final year in the Bronx forced him to settle for a one-year, $13 million deal with the Mets last offseason. He got back on track in Queens, posting a 3.91 ERA in 182 innings.
What changed? Severino leaned less on his four-seam fastball and focused instead on his sinker, a newer offering. He also introduced a highly effective sweeper, which generated an impressive 60 strikeouts. Severino would be another fun addition to the Orioles’ pitching lab and would slot in nicely as their No. 3 starter until Bradish gets back. The only problem: Severino declined his qualifying offer, meaning the O’s would have to forfeit a draft pick in order to sign him.
Spencer Turnbull
2025 age: 32
2024 stats: 3-0, 2.65 ERA, 1.2 WAR in 54 1/3 innings
Turnbull was an afterthought when the Phillies signed him for $2 million in February. The former Detroit Tiger hadn’t made more than 11 starts in a season since 2019. But when injuries forced him into the opening day rotation, Turnbull excelled, registering a 1.67 ERA in six April starts. When Philadelphia moved him to the bullpen, he was slightly less effective, and his season was cut short by a lat strain in June.
What Turnbull lacks in velocity — his fastball averages 92 mph — he makes up for in variety, working six different pitches into his arsenal. His extensive injury history, including Tommy John surgery in 2021, is alarming. But perhaps Turnbull’s 2024 season could provide a playbook for how to manage his workload. The Orioles could build him up as a starter in spring training, then convert him back to a reliever when Bradish and Wells are ready to return. For one season, there are worse bets to take.
Comments
Welcome to The Banner's subscriber-only commenting community. Please review our community guidelines.