There’s plenty of evidence that Adley Rutschman is the Orioles’ spiritual and actual measure of success. As we’ve seen since he debuted, Rutschman being at his best means the Orioles are, and as the second half showed, the opposite is true as well.

As such, his return to form is one of the chief upside-drivers on the Orioles’ roster this season. I think there’s another one that’s somehow overlooked: Gunnar Henderson can still improve too, and that feels pretty wild to say.

This comes off a 2024 season in which Henderson spent the first half of the year performing at an MVP-caliber level and still ended up — ho-hum — as a top five position player in baseball by many measurements. He hit 37 home runs with an .893 OPS and a 155 wRC+, which is 55% better than league average.

According to FanGraphs, that was worth eight wins above replacement (fWAR), with Baseball Prospectus’ WARP coming in at 5.6. Those ranked fifth best and 11th best in the league, respectively.

The forecasts are for Henderson to be in the same neighborhood as last year in some senses, but not all. FanGraphs’ ZiPS projection has Henderson down for 28 home runs and an .854 OPS, with a 144 wRC+. Their Steamer platform is more favorable, with 34 home runs, a 149 wRC+ and an .873 OPS. Over at Baseball Prospectus, PECOTA has Henderson forecast for 28 home runs and an .801 OPS.

In terms of overall value, ZiPS has Henderson forecast for 6.1 WAR, Steamer at 7.2 and PECOTA at 4.6 WARP.

This puts my overall premise here at odds with the numbers. I don’t think that needs to be the case, though. We’re talking about a player who, from his first full year to his second full year, improved in the following categories: hard-hit rate (52% to 53.9%), walk rate (9% to 10.8%), strikeout rate (25.6% to 22.1%) and chase rate (26.5% to 23.2%).

There’s probably some push and pull in the forecasts as to whether those can be sustained, especially considering Henderson’s 2023 stats have his tough start baked in to counterbalance those gains. There’s also the expectation that a second full year at shortstop will give Henderson a better understanding of the plays he can and can’t make, which could cut down on the errors and boost his defensive value.

But there are also plenty of speculative reasons why Henderson could still push higher in this, his age-24 season. One is the idea that the Orioles could be an overall more aggressive baserunning team, which stands to benefit Henderson at the top of the lineup with someone like Jackson Holliday at the bottom of it to create distractions on the bases while Henderson is at the plate. Another is the improved protection that an at-his-best Rutschman will provide.

More upsides come from the left-field wall moving back in, given Henderson’s ability to drive the ball the other way. He may not clear the fence meaningfully more often, but there will be less room for outfielders at Camden Yards to track balls down, so he could end up with more doubles to left as a result.

There’s also the fact that he’s still young enough to reasonably be expected to improve. Part of Henderson’s success through his professional career has been the compounding benefits of the experiences he’s gained at a young age, be it at the alternate site in 2020, the high minors in the following seasons, and as one of the majors’ youngest stars the last few years. Henderson, it should be noted, is probably not satisfied with any of the successes he has had so far. If there’s a way to get better, he will. And the 2025 Orioles will surely benefit from that.

Ballpark chatter

“We are excited to have this longstanding issue resolved,” said David Rubenstein, Orioles owner and control person, about the MASN resolution.

You and me both. Our very own Kyle Goon laid out a lot of very good thoughts on this, and I recommend them to you. I also would like to add that this aptly described longstanding issue was an embarrassing one for the Orioles and is the latest welcome example of the lack of baggage this ownership group has serving both the team and the fans well. I suppose I don’t blame the Angelos family for holding on tight to the main reparations from the Nationals’ move onto their turf, even if it ended up being a massive headache to do so. This new group just isn’t beholden to that logic, and I’m glad it acted accordingly.

Talent pipeline

Dylan Beavers

Yes, I am the guy who wrote an entire series on Dylan Beavers’ swing work years ago, so I may not be the most objective source. But I’d just like to note that he had a hard single in the spring opener on Feb. 22 at Statcast-less Ed Smith Stadium, then had the following outputs in the rest of his brief spring looks: 103.9 mph double, 98.1 mph lineout and 102.2 mph home run.

Beavers has the eye and contact skills already; if the movement work he did this winter in Sarasota, Florida, allows him to tap into his power, he’s probably pushing for Baltimore sooner than anyone thought.

Further reading

🌭 Bonding over hot dogs: Charlie Morton and I built the foundation of what I expect will be a great working relationship by chatting about Duchess, a small Connecticut fast food chain with some outstanding hot dogs. Andy had a deeper chat with him, which everyone should read.

🎯 Zach Eflin: I enjoyed this story from Danielle on Zach Eflin, who has a unique and important role in the rotation this year.

🏟️ Analysis on the left-field wall: Hopefully, this is the last time we read about the potential impact of a new wall location in Baltimore. That said, this article is a good one and — no surprise — shows this change is going to be good for Ryan Mountcastle. I do, however, wonder if the impact on the Orioles’ pitchers may end up being the one we hear more about as the season goes on.