Jackson Holliday’s on-base-plus-slugging percentage had just dipped below the .700 mark for the first time in months when a well-timed conversation unlocked a new way for the Orioles second baseman to approach a plate appearance.
On the field at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia in early August, Holliday chatted away with Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber. Their profiles are far different. Holliday doesn’t expect himself to be — nor should he — a home run champion, as Schwarber may become this season. But the left-handed hitter passed on a philosophy to Holliday that has stuck with the 21-year-old in the month since.
Sometimes, don’t swing.
Holliday has been an aggressive hitter most of his life. Early this season, when pitchers attempted to steal a first-pitch strike, Holliday’s aggression led to results. But swinging at anything he can make contact with is different from swinging at what he can do damage to, and Schwarber emphasized the difference.
“He likes to set lines, and if it starts on one side of the line he goes, and if it starts on the other side, he takes it,” Holliday said of Schwarber’s mentality. “Pitchers are really good at what they do, but sometimes they make mistakes, and you have to be ready for the mistakes.”
What that means, for Holliday and Schwarber and so many other hitters when faced with a left-on-left matchup, is to ignore the low-and-outside offerings. “There’s not a lot of damage on the ones down and away,” Holliday said, and the stats reinforce it.
With a better understanding the last month that not swinging can make the swings he does take more meaningful, Holliday has flourished. He’s walking more, striking out less and his OPS has jumped in the last 30 days. The results are creating a positive ending to a trying first full season in the major leagues, and they build hope for what 2026 could bring.
“We want to push a button and make a 21-year-old kid the best player in the league, that’s not how this works, man,” interim manager Tony Mansolino said. “It takes time for lefties to hit lefties. It takes time for young kids to learn how to play defense. It takes time for young kids to learn how to play in this game. There are no quick fixes to this, it’s just accumulating at-bats and innings and playing the game.”
Holliday, the first overall selection in the 2022 draft, has taken his fair share of lumps since arriving in the major leagues. He was optioned to Triple-A after only 10 games last year because he hit 2-for-34 in that span. Once he returned, Holliday improved but didn’t light up the league; he finished with a .218 average in his final 50 games.
The up-and-down nature has followed into 2025, but one of the major developmental hurdles was cleared by Mansolino’s insistence upon letting Holliday play no matter who was on the mound for the opponent.
That exposed Holliday to more left-on-left matchups, and he has learned how those tend to go.
Entering Tuesday, left-handed pitchers threw 24% of their pitches low and outside the zone against Holliday, according to Statcast, hoping for him to chase. When he does swing, he whiffs on those low-and-outside pitches at a 69% rate, and when he does make contact, the results are putrid.
Holliday has not hit one ball against a lefty at 95 mph or faster — the Statcast definition of a hard-hit ball — when he makes contact on low-and-away pitches that are either in the zone or just outside of the zone. By comparison, Holliday’s hard-hit rate on pitches down the middle is 61%. He’s making hard contact 53% of the time on offerings middle-in, and on 50% of his contact against pitches up and in.
With that knowledge, why would Holliday waste his time flailing at a low-and-away pitch from a southpaw?
He shouldn’t, Schwarber told him.
“If they want to nibble down and away, let them have it because not a lot of expected numbers come out of down and away,” Holliday said. “You might get lucky here or there or I might take a good swing and get a hit, but for the most part, you’re going to get yourself out if you swing down and away.”
As is the case for every hitter, advice comes from various areas. Holliday’s dad, Matt, is a seven-time All-Star and helps with his son’s swing throughout the season and winter. Holliday works closely with Cody Asche, the Orioles’ hitting coach, as well as assistants Tommy Joseph and Sherman Johnson. After all, prioritizing pitches on which one can do damage is an organizational philosophy.
The advice from all of them is distilled down into the various adjustments a player makes throughout the season. But when a word of advice comes from a player such as Schwarber, who hit his 50th home run Tuesday night and has a .926 OPS for the Phillies, it behooves one to listen closely.
At this point, pitchers know the scouting report against Schwarber. His average exit velocity against lefties on pitches low and inside is 107 mph — an astronomically high number. So left-handed pitchers throw low-and-outside of the zone 28% of the time against Schwarber. But when they make a mistake, Schwarber eviscerates it.
When Holliday considers where he does his most damage against left-handers, it’s also on the inner half of the plate. With less than two strikes, then, Holliday is choosier. Entering Tuesday, the overall numbers reinforce Holliday’s strategy.
In 25 games since Aug. 9, Holliday holds a .787 OPS with a 19.3% walk rate and a 13.4% strikeout rate. Before Aug. 9, Holliday was far more whiff-heavy, with a 5.2% walk rate and 26.4% strikeout rate.
“All the damage is on the inner half, so I’m going to go on the inner half,” Holliday said, later adding: “That’s what he [Schwarber] was saying, and what I took away from it was, if a lefty wants to throw me down and away three times, tip my cap.”
This season hasn’t been a rousing success for Holliday, let alone the Orioles. They are winding down the season in September rather than gearing up for October baseball. But in the long run, the trial and error for Holliday could be seen as an imperative step in his development.
“Obviously, this season hasn’t gone the way we had hoped, but I think it has been very valuable for me, especially,” Holliday said. “To be able to go out here every day and face, no matter who’s coming in, gain the experience against guys like [Tarik] Skubal and [Garrett] Crochet and [Max] Fried, and just having experience against them can definitely be very beneficial for me and our team.”
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