Now that the part where the Orioles don’t have to worry about having money to spend in free agency feels settled, there are more nuanced conversations to be had around their offseason plans.

Things that the front office has been loath to do in the past, such as signing qualifying-offer free agents or trading a bunch of prospects in the winter, might be on the table. And, when they decide to do something, like dip into international markets or jump at players who are the best fit for what they need, we should probably pay attention for a repeat.

Here are four things president of baseball operations Mike Elias and his team have likely discussed at great length over the last couple of months.

Is the qualifying offer different this year?

There was a time when signing a free agent who rejected the qualifying offer from his former team, the penalty for which is the loss of the third-highest pick in the following draft for a revenue-sharing recipient like the Orioles, was a nonstarter. It’ll probably never be more extreme than last year, when the Orioles had three picks in the top 31 after Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander rejected qualifying offers from Baltimore.

Advertise with us

This year, because the Orioles have no qualifying-offer free agents and rotate up into Competitive Balance Round A, it would be the seventh pick in the second round. Last year, that was the 50th overall pick and came with a $1.95 million slot value.

Let’s begin from the point that the Orioles probably don’t want to limit themselves in the draft and believe a healthy and productive farm system is paramount to long-term success. Here are a couple of things that could mitigate that.

What matters most is the quality of player the Orioles could bring in, and at this point you can expect that almost all of the top free-agent starters (Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez, Brandon Woodruff, Zac Gallen, Shota Imanaga and Michael King) will have draft-pick penalties attached. The Orioles could budge from their traditional stance for them for a few reasons.

One is that they have the fourth-highest lottery odds to secure the No. 1 pick, with some clubs behind them in the standings ineligible. Last year’s No. 1 pick had a slot value of $11.08 million. If they move up into the top few picks, perhaps the bump in pool value that pick provides will make it easier to stomach losing their third selection, given they’d probably try to save money to spread around later with that top pick anyway.

The other is that, with last year’s draft, their deadline trade haul and what’s expected to be a bumper international free-agent class, the Orioles can maybe afford to go a year with a smaller draft bonus pool if it means getting a free agent who will move the needle for the 2026 club and beyond. They’d probably feel it a little, but in the broader context of what’s already in place, maybe not.

Advertise with us

For different reasons, trades are in play

There’s rightfully plenty of fatigue among Orioles fans who have heard for years how the team has the prospect talent to acquire any player it wants only for it to hang on to most of them. No arguing that and, honestly, probably still true in the sense the Orioles are going to keep the best and most famous ones.

However, the difference now is that the next tiers are attractive to other clubs in a way they weren’t in the past. Those were farm systems that were top-heavy and mostly limited to high-performing college hitters from the draft.

Michael Forret pitches as a member of the Delmarva Shorebirds.
Michael Forret is part of a talented group of pitchers in the Orioles’ system who could attract trade attention. (Joey Gardner/Delmarva Shorebirds)

Now you can scan the Orioles’ farm system and find a lot of high-minors rotation options (Trey Gibson, Luis De León, Michael Forret, Nestor German), international signees on the rise (Aron Estrada, Thomas Sosa, Yasmil Bucce and Jordan Sanchez), plus talented trade additions from last year (Boston Bateman, Juaron Watts-Brown and Wellington Aracena) who can be part of a major trade. The Orioles are high on all of those guys, but so are other teams.

Trades were hard to line up when the only players anyone wanted were the top prospects who seemed nailed-on to contribute in the big leagues. Those calls ended quickly. Now the deals could take a lot of different shapes. Maybe the Orioles will even bite on one or two.

Japanese pipeline continues?

Tomoyuki Sugano wasn’t on anyone’s radar as a potential Orioles addition this time last year, and for that reason alone it’s worth noting the club could be heading back to Nippon Professional Baseball for rotation help.

Advertise with us

The top Japanese pitcher on the market, 27-year-old right-hander Tatsuya Imai, seems somewhere between Sugano’s level and good enough that it’s a foregone conclusion that he’s a Dodger, a la Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki. More likely than not, he has the stuff to be good, and he is probably the type of pitcher the Orioles will be able to get the most out of.

With him, as with this year’s group of former MLB pitchers set to return much better than when they left (right-hander Cody Ponce and lefties Anthony Kay and Foster Griffin), there’s probably a better chance of signing for fair value than at the top of the domestic free-agent market.

On the other side, flexibility matters

Most thoughts here are centered around the mound, where the Orioles have the largest need and can make the biggest impact, but they’re in the market for hitters.

I think it’s important to note what they’re looking for, because this time last year they needed a right-handed-hitting outfielder and signed Tyler O’Neill when it became evident that Teoscar Hernández wanted to go back to the Dodgers.

O’Neill immediately became more valuable to the Orioles than anyone else, and they moved quickly. This year, an outfielder is probably on tap too. O’Neill’s former Cardinals teammate Harrison Bader — a right-handed hitter who can play all three outfield spots — feels like he’s atop that list of players more valuable here than anywhere else.

They also probably want someone who can, at least nominally, count as a third catcher with the ability to do other things, given Samuel Basallo and Adley Rutschman will likely be in the lineup most days. I don’t know the extent to which Korean free agent Baek-ho Kang, a 26-year-old left-handed hitter, can actually catch, but if it’s even a little, with the ability to play first base and corner outfield, he could solve a lot of roster problems for the Orioles.