It might be a long time before the Orioles are picking back at the top of the first round of the MLB draft, where the prospects with the highest ceilings and the highest probabilities of impacting a major league ballclub quickly fly off the board.

Wherever they pick, the Orioles’ biases are going to shine through. They favor hitters with bat-to-ball skills, the ability to control the strike zone and the capability to square the ball up and hit it hard in the air. They’ve increasingly leaned toward athleticism, and they always prefer an up-the-middle defensive profile.

There’s no use changing a strategy that’s working well, though even the front office knows the level of talent at the end of the first and subsequent rounds leaves a team with more work to do on the developmental side.

So, as the Orioles continue this new competitive phase while trying to sustain their success through drafting and developing homegrown talent, a player pool they’ve infrequently drafted from but has provided some of their most impactful young talents could provide more: the high school ranks.

From Gunnar Henderson and Darell Hernaiz to Coby Mayo and Jackson Holliday, the Orioles have been adept at identifying the high school players who can make an impact and shepherding them through the minors quickly. A vast majority of their picks are from the college ranks, for a variety of reasons. But they’re confident when they take high school players, too.

“We’re just trying to make the best bet possible with every pick, and in doing so you have to weigh all the different variables, or all the different pieces of information,” said Matt Blood, the team’s vice president of player development and domestic scouting. “Part of that is their age. Part of that is their position. Part of that is their tools, their ability to impact the game.

“And you sort of put all that together and try to make some sense of it, and decide which players are the better bets. The best bet possible is the one you’re going to take, and then you’re going to go down the list from there. Sometimes they’re high school players, and sometimes they’re college players. Whenever they are high school players, they’re usually the kind of high school players we tend to have success with.”

The Orioles took some third-day fliers on high school players they ultimately didn’t sign in the 2023 draft, but the preceding set of prep draftees has proven impactful.

The 2019 draft yielded an All-Star shortstop in Henderson, who at age 23 is putting together an MVP-caliber season atop the Orioles lineup. Four picks later came Hernaiz, another prep shortstop. He had a different developmental path than Henderson — Hernaiz spent all of 2021 at Low-A Delmarva and began a breakout 2022 season there before ending that season at Double-A Bowie. That winter, he was traded to the A’s for left-hander Cole Irvin.

In the shortened 2020 draft, the Orioles used savings from signing top pick Heston Kjerstad for below slot toward Mayo and right-hander Carter Baumler. Mayo, 22, is the organization’s No. 2 prospect and the game’s No. 12 prospect, according to Baseball America. He has a .992 OPS and 19 home runs in 61 games at Triple-A Norfolk, and he seems like a candidate to join the Orioles at any moment. Baumler has pitched just 49 professional innings due to elbow and shoulder injuries.

Just one prep player was selected and signed in the 2021 draft — $1 million eighth-round catcher Creed Willems — and after No. 1 overall pick Holliday in 2022, the Orioles also used the first pick of the third day on a high school player, right-hander Zack Showalter.

Showalter impressed in his pro debut in 2023 and was part of the trade package to acquire right-hander Jack Flaherty a year ago this month from the St. Louis Cardinals.

Holliday, who entered the year as the consensus top prospect in baseball, struggled in his major league debut but is viewed no less favorably for it. He has a .962 OPS at Norfolk since his recent stint on the injured list.

There are reasons both within and outside the Orioles’ control that have made college players the preference in the previous five drafts. On a basic level, there are far more of them as draft candidates due to the maturity and skill progression that occurs in three years at the college level. And the 2020 draft shortened due to the pandemic pushed even more talent to the NCAA, which is still being reflected in the player pool.

The more college developmental processes mirror those in pro ball, the better college players get, and the vast data supply available on college players helps major league teams get a sense of who they are and what they can become.

It takes a lot for a high school player to climb to the top of the draft: an elite, well-rounded skill set and the maturity or pedigree to suggest they are ready for the pressure that comes with such a selection. For the rest of the high school players drafted by any team, there’s an understanding that the upside of youth and added development time in the professional ranks comes with plenty of work to be done.

“Gunnar, Coby and Hernaiz, they all took full advantage of their opportunities, and when they were drafted, they weren’t sure things,” Blood said. “If they were sure things, they would have gone a lot higher. They’ve done a great job in their development inside of our system and, to their credit, they’ve taken advantage of every opportunity that’s been put in front of them, and they’re all very good players.”

The Orioles particularly value the accelerated growth that signing high school players can provide, but they know maturity is key to allow that process to play out. The Orioles felt Willems, a Texas prep star committed to TCU, was mature enough for pro ball, and so did he.

Willems landed on the injured list at High-A Aberdeen this week, but for the second straight season was better on his return to a level. He has a dozen home runs and a .768 OPS at age 21; many of his peers will just be entering pro ball this weekend. He talks to friends who went to school about the differences and realizes there’s plenty of upside to having signed.

“It’s more so about winning than developing guys [in college], and I feel like me coming straight into pro ball was honestly the best thing for me,” Willems said. “The developmental aspect of being able to work with some of the best coaches in the world was what helped me the most, and getting their insight.”

Blood said: “Creed is a great example of someone who has really benefited from the daily work and all the developmental time he’s been given, whereas in college baseball he wouldn’t have gotten nearly as much opportunity to develop as he has with us. And, to his credit, he’s a very tough kid, he’s a very hard worker and he can handle it. He’s done great, and he’s gotten better and better and better. He had a long ways to go when we drafted him. He had a long ways to go. But he’s made big strides and he’s a great kid.”