The fluidity of the Orioles’ situation ahead of the trade deadline makes predicting what they will do a difficult task, both for writers and opposing teams in Major League Baseball.

After improving their play, the Orioles aren’t completely out of the wild-card conversation. Still, the chances of a massive turnaround, from firing a manager in May to reaching the postseason in October, appear slim. To scouts around baseball, the prudent path forward would be to sell players at the deadline, prioritizing a retooling for 2026 competitiveness over the long shot of 2025.

But, even after trading right-hander Bryan Baker to the Tampa Bay Rays, general manager Mike Elias said it isn’t certain Baltimore will sell. It could even buy, he said.

“It’s mathematically possible,” Elias said. The remainder of this month could dictate what happens ahead of the July 31 trade deadline.

To some in the industry, there is a strong case for selling.

“They’re delusional, and they keep thinking they’re going to turn this around,” one scout from a National League club said. “I don’t know how serious they’ve gotten yet. But with the way it’s going, dude, they have to at least entertain selling a couple of these guys. Especially a couple of these bullpen pieces.”

The scout added that he does “know for a fact they’re entertaining calls,” beyond the deal for Baker. How seriously the Orioles are treating those calls is more of a mystery.

“They’re third last in the American League,” a second scout from a different National League club said. “It’s great that you have three wild cards and it’s great you’re 6 1/2 games back of the wild card, but you’re third last in the American League, so you have a ton of teams ahead of you in the same boat. Realistically, I don’t know, I wouldn’t hold back because you’re trying to fight for a wild-card spot.”

The Baltimore Banner spoke with three scouts on the condition of anonymity to assess how talent evaluators view the players potentially available via trade this month. Whether the Orioles deal them remains to be seen. However, to these talent evaluators, the Orioles are uniquely positioned.

Most of the obvious selling teams do not have the sort of players who can truly impact a contender.

“Looking through the teams that are selling, not many of them have pitching or really anything that teams want,” a third National League scout said. “It creates this advantageous spot for Baltimore if they want to move off of guys. If they’re the only seller, certain teams that maybe need to make the playoffs this year may become more and more willing to make that move.”

With insight from three talent evaluators, these are the tiers in which Orioles players fall, based on how much interest they are likely to receive from buyers ahead of the deadline. It does not mean the Orioles will trade them. Much can change in three weeks.

Tier A

Infielder/outfielder Ryan O’Hearn

Slash line through Friday: .287/.383/.463

When analyzing the potential trade market, there is a firmly held belief that the most coveted left-handed bat available is the Orioles’ Ryan O’Hearn. The first-time All-Star can play multiple positions (first base, corner outfield, designated hitter), and his bat could fit into almost any lineup because of his combination of contact and power.

O’Hearn thrives on hard contact and plate discipline. He’s making hard contact 48.6% of the time. He walks at a 12.1% rate and strikes out at a 16.6% clip. Each of those ranks in the 76th percentile or better, according to Statcast.

“You can fit him anywhere, in any lineup,” the second scout said. “He’s just a good hitter. You can always add one of those.”

Next to O’Hearn is first baseman Josh Naylor of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Much like Baltimore, it’s unclear whether Arizona will be a seller. Both teams are within shouting distance of the wild card (although the Diamondbacks are closer).

The scouts view Naylor as more of a power threat but pin O’Hearn as the best all-around option from the left side. Naylor is hitting .295 with an .823 on-base-plus-slugging percentage. Both players are impending free agents.

“There’re some pretty big voids O’Hearn fills seamlessly from both a money and ability standpoint,” the third scout said, referencing the Seattle Mariners and Milwaukee Brewers as potential fits. “If I were Baltimore, and you wanted to move him, I’d root for Arizona to win 10 in a row so they keep Naylor. And the same thing for Arizona. I’d be rooting for Baltimore the next two weeks. In terms of moveable bats, they both are toward the top of the market there.”

The first scout noted the Orioles could hold on to O’Hearn and aim instead for a short-term contract extension, because “they don’t really have anybody else like that in the system.” Still, calls will surely come in asking for O’Hearn.

“I think the Orioles are going to ask too much for him, personally, which is probably the right thing to do, but I just don’t know if they’ll shoehorn themselves out of a deal because of it, because they’ve done that in the past,” the first scout said. “But, yeah, I’m struggling to think of anyone else in the market who’s higher value than him.”

Plus, trading O’Hearn doesn’t preclude the Orioles from attempting to re-sign him this winter in free agency.

Right-hander Félix Bautista

Stats through Friday: 2.41 ERA, 1.040 WHIP, 18 saves

If the Orioles are serious about competing in 2026, they should hang up the phone when teams ask about right-hander Félix Bautista, their closer. He’s under team control through 2027. And, although Bautista’s command hasn’t been superb in 2025 (a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.40 compared to 4.23 in 2023), he has been effective.

“If I was a true buyer, I’d be going all after Bautista, but I don’t know if he’s untouchable or not,” the second scout said.

Added the third scout: “So few teams are selling and you have this controllable relief option, you just haven’t seen guys like him get moved. I guess Jason Adam was probably the closest, and that was a relatively big haul back to Tampa. There aren’t a lot of comps as to what that would look like in terms of a prospect return.”

That trade sent Adam, a controllable reliever through 2026, to the San Diego Padres. In return, the Rays received three prospects, all of whom ranked No. 12 or better in San Diego’s system.

Listing Bautista here does not mean the Orioles are likely to sell him. It means teams are likely to be most interested in him. In all likelihood, Bautista is an untouchable piece.

Tier B

Right-hander Charlie Morton

Stats through Friday: 5.18 ERA, 1.524 WHIP, 83 1/3 innings

It would have been hard to believe right-hander Charlie Morton would be a coveted starting pitching option at the trade deadline after the first month of the season. The 41-year-old held a 9.45 ERA at the end of April.

To Morton’s immense credit, he has rediscovered his form. Since May, he holds a 3.18 ERA. All of a sudden, he is viewed as the most appealing starting pitcher Baltimore could have to offer.

“The starting pitching market is always so tough to get anything out of as a buyer,” the second scout said. “With [Zach] Eflin dealing with injuries, and [Tomoyuki] Sugano’s been scuffling, the league may be adjusting to him, I could see Morton as being the most coveted of the Orioles’ starters.”

Added the third scout: “He’ll also get a bump for playoff experience, all that. The money piece of it, there could be a legitimate return, especially if Baltimore is able to pay down some of it.”

It’s not a guarantee, of course. The first scout pondered whether the innings Morton can eat during the second half would be more valuable than whatever prospects would come in a deal for the veteran.

Right-hander Seranthony Domínguez

Stats through Friday: 3.13 ERA, 1.259 WHIP, 37 1/3 innings

The Orioles have already traded one reliever in Baker. Domínguez, an impending free agent, is likely to be the most sought-after Orioles reliever realistically available. Domínguez has found considerable success with his splitter, an offering he developed last winter, and the additional pitch has propelled him to his best season since 2022.

All three scouts placed Domínguez in the second tier of potentially available relievers. They don’t view him as a top-end guy but figure Baltimore could receive a nice return for him because contenders are always searching for reliable relief pitchers.

“Seranthony, for me, is a pretty reasonable target for any club looking for a guy who can go into the back end of a bullpen and pitch in the playoffs and provide value,” the first scout said. “I don’t think he’s that top-tier reliever target, but he’s probably the cream of the crop of the second level.

“I don’t want to say guaranteed he’s going to be traded, but a strong likelihood is what I would say. And he’s someone most teams will target,” the scout continued.

Tier C

Outfielder Cedric Mullins

Slash line through Friday: .216/.302/.413

Cedric Mullins is a difficult player to gauge. With 13 homers and 13 steals, he’s on pace for his first 20-20 season since 2021, when he erupted for a career-best year. The following seasons have been defined as much by his slumps as his hot streaks, and that includes 2025.

At the end of April, Mullins was hitting .278 with a .927 OPS. In the months since, he is hitting .180 with a .586 OPS. That is quite the falloff.

His defense, historically stellar in center field, is concerning as well. The advanced metrics — which some baseball minds discard as overly analytical for a part of the game in which the eye test still matters — aren’t flattering. His arm has never graded well, but for the first time in his career, Mullins is across the board poorly marked for his work in the outfield.

According to Statcast, Mullins has accounted for a negative-2 fielding run value (zero is league average). In comparison, he produced a career-high 9 in 2022.

“The defense piece has been pretty confounding across the board,” the third scout said. “A team that’s really confident in their outfield positioning could see him getting better with that. You’re not bringing him in expecting him to hit anywhere above sixth in the lineup. You’re hopefully banking on the defense, and if you get some real offensive contributions, that’s great. He’s in the bucket where, money-wise, it’s palatable for a lot of teams to take. I think he’s sort of an obvious sell, really in any case.

“The sprint speed is not crazy different than in years past, so it’s a little harder to explain why it’s gotten worse,” the scout continued. “Maybe it’s because defensive metrics aren’t always that sticky, so, if you’re in that camp, bring him on, he’ll regress to the mean by the end of the year and now you have plus range in center.”

Mullins, an impending free agent, is the longest-tenured Orioles player. His voice carries weight in meetings. But, if Baltimore doesn’t intend to re-sign him, the scouts say, finding a trade for Mullins might be the best path forward.

“He’s the type of piece who’s a good playoff piece,” the first scout said. “I think Mullins is easier to acquire than O’Hearn, for example. They’re two different types of players, but Mullins could fit right into the Phillies immediately, or the Dodgers, and provide clear value.”

Tier D

Everyone else, apart from the young core

It is reasonable to assume that every reliever not named Bautista is available should the offer be strong enough. That includes left-hander Gregory Soto and right-hander Andrew Kittredge.

Although these players are in the bottom tier, they could be the likeliest to be traded. Again, this tier system is based on how valuable players are seen around the league. Relievers, at the deadline, are often the most moved players as contenders look to bolster a volatile position group.

Outfielder Ramón Laureano is another name that could interest teams, along with infielder Ramón Urías. In both cases, they remain under team control next season; Laureano has a club option in his contract, and Urías will enter his last season of arbitration eligibility. Laureano’s .279/.348/.500 slash line could make him especially intriguing for teams needing a boost, but he would be a hard sell.

“They’d have to get bowled over to move him,” the third scout said. “They were right on that one. I was not on that signing in the offseason, and he’s been remarkably consistent and he’s super cheap next year. You never say no, but I think they do want to compete in ’26, so that would be a hold.”