FORT MYERS, Fla. — Brandon Hyde began his sentence with the word “if,” and it’s a big one. With the way pitchers in Major League Baseball have fared in recent years, “if” carries weight. In this case, the Orioles manager was commenting on how settled the starting rotation already appears — if the pitchers stay healthy, that is.

Baltimore didn’t make a splash this offseason by signing a certified ace, but general manager Mike Elias built a staff that has depth and ample experience. He signed Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton, and he traded for Zach Eflin last year. Add in Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer, and there are five starters poised to be in the rotation on opening day.

Beyond them, Hyde took the step of naming right-hander Albert Suárez as “the sixth” and left-hander Cade Povich as “a seven.” It gave the impression that, as of this moment, there’s little rotation competition to be had.

If it all works out, of course.

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Pitcher Albert Suárez is sixth in line in the Orioles’ rotation, manager Brandon Hyde said. (Ulysses Muñoz/The Baltimore Banner)

On Friday, when the Orioles rallied with an eight-run ninth inning to beat the Minnesota Twins at Hammond Stadium, Eflin was the final rotation candidate to pitch this spring. He threw 40 pitches and allowed one run on four hits in two innings. Early results in spring training hardly make a difference. What matters more is building endurance for the slog of a season ahead and remaining healthy — there’s that big “if” again.

But, as things stand, the Orioles feel confident in the makeup of their rotation. That doesn’t mean there isn’t maneuverability, though, as injuries or performance-related issues arise.

“I think it’s so early in camp right now,” Hyde said, “you’re just keeping your fingers crossed these guys can get built up and stay healthy at the same time.”

The projected five:

  • RHP Zach Eflin, 2.60 ERA in 2024
  • RHP Grayson Rodriguez, 3.86 ERA
  • RHP Charlie Morton, 4.19 ERA
  • RHP Dean Kremer, 4.10 ERA
  • RHP Tomoyuki Sugano, 1.67 ERA in Japan

Suárez and Povich could see innings in the rotation this season, along with right-hander Brandon Young. Minor injuries for left-hander Trevor Rogers and right-hander Chayce McDermott have delayed their throwing progression, but they figure to be options as well.

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So, while the first five starters seem fairly stable, the group could evolve over the course of 162 games.

“I look at it through the lens of, it could be anybody and everybody. We’re going to need more than five starters, right?” Eflin said. “If we spread that and make everybody feel like they’re part of the five, I think that’ll pay off in the long run. And that’s what this staff does, honestly. It’s on the hitting side, too. Everybody’s very friendly and competitive, but we feel we get the most out of everybody. And if we can spread that, and spread that fire and competitiveness, we can work with anybody that comes up.”

Orioles pitchers Zach Eflin, Tyler Wells and Cade Povich enter the dugout ahead of a Grapefruit League game against the Detroit Tigers this week. (Ulysses Muñoz/The Baltimore Banner)

As if to punctuate the point that nothing in baseball is a given, Suárez followed Eflin’s start and struggled to limit damage for the second straight outing. Suárez, who’s etched into a do-it-all bullpen role after a breakout 2024, allowed six hits and five runs Friday. Across 4 1/3 innings this spring, he has given up seven runs and four walks.

It’s early, so displays such as those aren’t indicative of how a player might perform when games matter. But they are the sort of outings that, if compounded, insert more doubt into what appears to be a fairly set group of pitchers.

For a thought experiment, without meaning to read too much into a small spring sample while he is tinkering with a new pitch, let’s say Suárez doesn’t make the opening day roster.

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The starting five likely remain the same, but it could open a place for right-hander Roansy Contreras, whom Hyde said will be stretched out to cover multiple innings after his impressive showing Thursday.

Contreras, who’s on the 40-man roster but is out of options, brings a mid-90s fastball and a slider that warranted a 107 Stuff+ rating, per FanGraphs (100 is average).

“We’re just going to take a good look at him,” Hyde said.

They’ll also look at Young and Povich, who have the potential to break through as mainstays soon. Povich showed flashes of success during his rookie campaign — particularly in September, when he posted a 2.60 ERA in five starts. Young hasn’t debuted yet but earned the organization’s minor league pitcher of the year award after recording a 3.57 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A.

Povich, especially, could make a case for the starting rotation, given his late-season success and his left-handedness. Right now, the five anticipated starters are all right-handers.

Over the course of the full season, the rotation will surely fluctuate. But if — and it’s a big if — the Orioles stay healthy this spring, the rotation looks set in stone before they depart for Baltimore.