Let this newsletter serve as a reminder, both to its writer and anyone who reads it, that what’s happening to the Orioles this week is bad.

The idea of this team, coming off two playoff appearances with a maturing and enviable lineup and the makings of a good enough pitching staff, now being deadline sellers would have been flippant entering the season, but it’s obviously become very real — and with good reason.

The reason is the disastrous first two months of the season. Through injuries and poor play from key players, the Orioles dug a hole too deep to get out of, so they’re back to trading players ahead of free agency to extract some longer-term value for them before they walk out the door in October.

It’s bad that this has happened — quite bad for the fans, for the team, for everyone with any interest in the club — and I feel compelled to just say this out loud because of what’s going to happen this week and beyond.

The Orioles are going to add prospects, potentially a bunch of them, who are probably going to seem good. They’ve already added some pitchers with fascinating stuff who might help one day. These young players will have flaws — or else their old clubs wouldn’t have traded them for a two-month rental — but the idea will be that they can overcome them and give the Orioles a boost a year (or four) down the line.

That’s valuable in a vacuum, but not as valuable as the Orioles simply being as good as they were supposed to be and loading up for another playoff run would be.

But because they aren’t, there will be opportunities for younger players to be showcased. A Ryan O’Hearn trade (or a Ryan Mountcastle trade, or I suppose both) would clear an avenue for Coby Mayo to play every day, and eventually open up DH opportunities for Samuel Basallo for the post-Aug. 15 world, where he can be added to the roster and still be eligible for AL Rookie of the Year in 2026, keeping the Orioles in play for a draft pick. All good things, there.

There will also be opportunities for Brandon Young, Cade Povich, and maybe Cameron Weston to claim the roles vacated by Charlie Morton, Zach Eflin and Tomoyuki Sugano, should they be dealt. That would be a nice chance to see what they are, too, as the Orioles plan for next year and beyond.

It would be a lot nicer if those experienced pitchers spent the whole season at their best and healthy, which would have meant the Orioles won more games and maybe wouldn’t be in this position.

Yet, because they are, they’re going to play two months of games that theoretically mean something but are going to be lower stakes than anything that has happened here in years. That means any number of things that could happen — Adley Rutschman continuing his pre-injury resurgence, Gunnar Henderson rediscovering his power stroke, Tyler O’Neill and Colton Cowser getting going, or anything else — will have a small caveat attached that they happened after the season was over.

This team will click at some point, making the first half even more frustrating. But if they don’t, we’ll eventually start hearing about their chances of getting a high pick in the MLB draft lottery. It’ll be fun when that happens, but remember — this is all happening because the Orioles have lost a lot of games this year, some they never had a chance in and some they shouldn’t have.

This is mostly a note-to-self, but I know how this goes. It’s going to be easy to look ahead once this week is over. Let’s not forget why it’s happening.

On the pod

Paul and I talked trades again, but took a break from the Fast franchise — for now. It feels like there are a lot of moving pieces still, but it was nice to mentally reset and set the stage for the next few days.

Ballpark Chatter

“Are you excited for this week?”

— an unnamed Orioles player to me at Starbucks Monday morning

Scene: Walking to grab a cold brew with my little guy, Milo, in the stroller Monday morning. “Dad mode,” I hear from beside the door, and I turn to see an Orioles player.

We talked for a little bit and he asked me if I was excited for this week. I told him and will tell you that the answer is not terribly! It’s not what is going to happen that’s hard. That feels (and in some cases is) pre-written. It’s the not knowing when things will happen that’s challenging. Let’s just say I’ve done a lot of meal prep for the family just in case.

By the numbers stats

1.319

Further evidence that everything bad that could possibly happen to the Orioles stacked up in the first two months of the season is the Tyler O’Neill resurgence since the All-Star break.

He’s providing what he was signed for after missing most of the first half due to shoulder and neck issues and having a .585 OPS at the break. Since then, he has a 1.319 OPS and three home runs in seven games. Similar to Gary Sánchez, it’s going to take a lot to overcome how things started. But O’Neill certainly has it in him.

Talent pipeline

Wellington Aracena

A bit late on this, but I was intrigued by what I could see from Wellington Aracena, part of the Orioles’ return in the deal that sent Gregory Soto to the Mets. Striking out 11.75 per nine with a 1.13 WHIP at age 20 in Low-A is objectively good, and doing so with an upper-90s fastball and multiple breaking balls (a trait the Orioles like, as it demonstrates an ability to add more pitches) shows there’s some upside there. I bet on them to rein in some of the walks and have him moving quickly though the system.

For further reading

📈 Ramón Laureano’s comeback: There’s a reason you always hear about baseball players searching for or making adjustments: When they take hold, they’re impactful. Andy’s story on Ramón Laureano’s adjustment proves that.

📊 Trade strategy: I had some thoughts on how the Orioles can maximize their returns at the trade deadline.

🧢Slater de Brun: The Orioles going over slot on outfielder Slater de Brun — and making their draft class cost over $20 million in the process — feels like a very Orioles thing to do. There’s a lot invested in this class, both figuratively and literally, considering the cost was letting two free agents (Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander) walk and then trading Bryan Baker.