A lot of work goes into a historic collapse, and the Ravens’ 41-40 loss Sunday night to the Buffalo Bills required a team effort. Their offense couldn’t manage a first down. Their defense couldn’t get a stop. Their special teams turned a perfect punt into a touchback. Their coaching decisions raised questions.

The misery was fresh, if unsurprising. According to ESPN, the Ravens’ Week 1 defeat was their eighth loss since 2021 in which they had an in-game win probability of at least 90%. They’ve blown seven double-digit leads in the fourth quarter over the past 10 seasons, including the playoffs, the most in the NFL.

“We’ve won a lot of games, and we’ve had a lot of two-score leads,” coach John Harbaugh said Monday. But, he added: “I don’t care how many two-score leads you have. I do believe that we need to be really thoughtful of how we decide that we’re going to approach those situations going forward. Let’s give it some thought. Let’s give some thought to our play-calling. Let’s give some thought to our defensive play-calling. Let’s give some thought to our mindset, like how we’re going to talk to one another.”

How do the Ravens keep snatching defeat from the jaws of victory? In search of clues, The Banner reviewed the eight games in which they had at least a 90% win probability, focusing primarily on the team’s play after those odds started to slip:

• 2022, Week 2 vs. Miami Dolphins (42-38)
• 2022, Week 4 vs. Bills (23-20)
• 2022, Week 6 at New York Giants (24-20)
• 2022, Week 12 at Jacksonville Jaguars (28-27)
• 2023, Week 5 at Pittsburgh Steelers (17-10)
• 2023, Week 10 vs. Cleveland Browns (33-31)
• 2024, Week 2 vs. Las Vegas Raiders (26-23)
• 2025, Week 1 at Bills (41-40)

Here’s an unscientific ranking of five root causes.

5. Special teams execution

Inside linebacker Trenton Simpson’s misplay of Jordan Stout’s punt midway through the fourth quarter was costly, giving Buffalo possession at its 20-yard line instead of near the goal line. But it came while the Ravens were well above the 90% threshold. Likewise, kicker Tyler Loop’s missed extra point came while the Ravens were up 15 points.

Generally, special teams errors have not factored into the Ravens’ late-game dysfunction. Kicker Justin Tucker attempted just two field goals in those situations over the past three seasons, both in 2022, making a go-ahead 51-yarder against Miami and missing a 67-yarder as time expired against Jacksonville.

The Ravens’ biggest special teams blunder might’ve come in the loss to the Raiders last year. Stout’s 24-yard punt late in the fourth quarter, with the game tied at 23, combined with a procedural penalty to give Las Vegas possession at the Ravens’ 43-yard line. The Raiders needed just one first down to set up kicker Daniel Carlson for a go-ahead 38-yard field goal, which proved decisive.

4. Fourth-down aggressiveness

While Harbaugh was criticized for his decision Sunday to punt the ball back to Bills quarterback Josh Allen rather than trusting the offense with a fourth-and-3 in Ravens territory, he has shown aggressiveness in other collapses. It just hasn’t paid off.

Midway through the fourth quarter of the 2022 loss to the Dolphins, with the Ravens leading 35-21 and facing fourth-and-1 at Miami’s 40, Jackson was stuffed on a designed run. Five plays later, wide receiver Tyreek Hill scored on a 48-yard touchdown catch.

Two weeks later, late in the fourth quarter of the loss to Buffalo, the Ravens went for a tie-breaking touchdown on fourth-and-goal from Buffalo’s 2. But quarterback Lamar Jackson’s pass was intercepted in the end zone. The Bills killed the remaining four-plus minutes of game clock with a go-ahead field goal drive.

Harbaugh was moderately conservative in Pittsburgh in 2023, when he punted on fourth-and-2 from the Ravens’ 33 while holding a 10-8 lead midway through the fourth quarter. But until Sunday, he’d had few other chances to be bold.

3. Offensive execution

Here’s how the offense has performed after the Ravens’ win probability fell below 90% in all eight games.

• 2022, Week 2 vs. Dolphins: 13 plays (three possessions), 69 yards and three points
• 2022, Week 4 vs. Bills: 29 plays (four possessions), 127 yards, two turnovers and no points
• 2022, Week 6 at Giants: seven plays (two possessions), 7 yards, two turnovers and no points
• 2022, Week 12 at Jaguars: nine plays (three possessions), 91 yards, one turnover and eight points
• 2023, Week 5 at Steelers: nine plays (three possessions), 10 yards, two turnovers and no points
• 2023, Week 10 vs. Browns: eight plays (two possessions), 18 yards, one turnover (a pick-six) and no points
• 2024, Week 2 vs. Raiders: 11 plays (three possessions): 40 yards and no points
• 2025, Week 1 at Bills: four plays (two possessions), minus-4 yards, one turnover and no points

Altogether, over 22 possessions, that’s 90 plays for 358 yards (4.0 per play) and 11 points (0.5 per possession), with nine turnovers.

There are some real stinkers here. The 2022 Dolphins and Giants defenses finished the season ranked among the league’s worst, and then-offensive coordinator Greg Roman couldn’t entirely crack them in his final year in Baltimore. The Ravens’ second-half no-show against Buffalo in 2022 followed a 20-point first half. In 2023, the offense got nothing out of a possession that started at Pittsburgh’s 7, the Ravens’ opportunity thrown away on a red-zone interception. The 2024 Raiders allowed 36 points to the offensively challenged Carolina Panthers one week after leaving Baltimore with a win.

The only thing keeping the offense from a higher ranking here is the general misfortune inflicted on some of their drives.

2. Defensive execution

Here’s how the defense has performed in the same eight games, including the results of drives where the Ravens’ win probability started above 90% before falling below it.

• 2022, Week 2 vs. Dolphins: 14 plays (three possessions), 191 yards and 21 points allowed
• 2022, Week 4 vs. Bills: 41 plays (five possessions), 263 yards and 20 points allowed
• 2022, Week 6 at Giants: 20 plays (three possessions), 95 yards and 14 points allowed
• 2022, Week 12 at Jaguars: 28 plays (three possessions), 155 yards and 18 points allowed
• 2023, Week 5 at Steelers: 13 plays (two possessions), 73 yards and nine points allowed
• 2023, Week 10 vs. Browns: 20 plays (two possessions), 133 yards and 10 points allowed
• 2024, Week 2 vs. Raiders: 22 plays (three possessions), 157 yards and 13 points allowed
• 2025, Week 1 at Bills: 13 plays (two possessions), 99 yards and nine points allowed

Altogether, over 23 possessions, that’s 171 plays for 1,166 yards (6.8 per play) and 114 points (5.0 per possession).

When the going gets bad for the Ravens, almost nothing gets worse than their defense, no matter the coordinator. The Ravens have forced one punt and no takeaways in those eight games under Mike Macdonald and Zach Orr. If not for clock-killing drives and kneel-downs, their statistical profile would be even worse.

And the offenses that have dissected the Ravens haven’t all been world-beaters. Quarterbacks Kenny Pickett and Deshaun Watson led the 2023 Steelers and 2023 Browns, respectively, while Gardner Minshew was at the reins for Las Vegas last year.

1. Bad luck

Running back Derrick Henry’s fumble Sunday night was a reminder, as if the Ravens needed it, of the randomness of football. Execution goes only so far; sometimes a ball can just bounce the wrong way.

And if there is any prevailing theme from the Ravens’ spell of late-game implosions, it’s the weight of bad luck. Henry hadn’t lost a fumble since mid-November. His giveaway came at an inopportune time and an inopportune place; Buffalo took over at the Ravens’ 30-yard line, trailing 40-32 with just over three minutes to go.

Fumble misfortune has plagued the Ravens in these high-leverage spots. Since 2022, the Ravens have fumbled 62 times in the regular season, losing 28 of them. On defense, they’ve forced 42 fumbles in the same span, recovering 19. They have generally had, in other words, unexceptional fumble luck over the past three-plus seasons.

But in the Ravens’ eight big collapses, variance has bitten them badly. They’ve recovered just one of their five fumbles on offense, and that came after an errant snap led to an interception in the 2022 loss to the Giants. (All five fumbles were lost in Ravens territory, too.) On defense, meanwhile, opposing offenses have recovered all three of their own fumbles, keeping drives alive just long enough to prolong the Ravens’ spiral.

Bad luck has taken on other forms, too. Injuries limited starting cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters as Miami stormed back in 2022. In the 2022 loss to Buffalo and the 2023 loss to Cleveland, Jackson threw an interception and a pick-six, respectively, after having a pass carom off a defensive lineman at the line of scrimmage.

In the 2024 loss to Las Vegas, cornerback Brandon Stephens was called for a questionable pass interference penalty on third-and-17, setting up the Raiders for a goal-line touchdown on their next play.

And on Sunday, the Bills narrowed their deficit to 40-32 on a touchdown maybe more improbable than Henry’s fumble. With just under four minutes remaining, Allen’s fourth-and-2 pass tipped off the right hand of tight end Dawson Knox and into the diving grasp of wide receiver Keon Coleman for a 10-yard score.

With an incompletion, the Ravens likely would’ve walked out of Highmark Stadium with a comfortable win. Even with the touchdown, the Ravens were still heavily favored to win the game.

But not for long.

“We’ve just got to figure out how to win games,” safety Kyle Hamilton said Sunday. “I mean, we’re winning them for 45 minutes. You’ve got to win them for 60 minutes. So new week next week. We’ll get it fixed and try to be 1-1.”