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The Ravens are a long way from the playoffs. They’re a long way from playoff contention, too.

But at 1-5, they don’t have much of a choice: Week 8 is already win-or-stay-home-this-winter territory. Or at least it should feel that way.

“Every game for us is a playoff game,” safety Kyle Hamilton said Wednesday as the Ravens prepared for Sunday’s game against the Chicago Bears (4-2). “That’s how it feels and how it’s going to have to be from here on out.”

Added wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins: “We’ve got to go out and play our best ball going forward. I think everyone knows that.”

Of course, it’s hard to play your best ball without your best ballplayer. And with Lamar Jackson’s availability for Sunday’s game yet to be determined as he recovers from a Week 4 hamstring injury, the Ravens could turn to backup Cooper Rush or practice squad quarterback Tyler Huntley to end a four-game losing streak.

With the NFL’s Nov. 4 trade deadline fast approaching, a win over the Bears could mark an inflection point in this Ravens season. A post-bye-week run against a soft midseason schedule is possible, if not probable.

A loss, meanwhile, could be a death knell for the Ravens’ Super Bowl hopes. Only one team in NFL history has started a season 1-6 and gone on to make the playoffs: the 1970 Cincinnati Bengals.

Here’s what to watch in the Ravens’ home matchup against Chicago. All stats are courtesy of Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

1. The big question looming over Sunday’s game is obvious: Will Jackson play? But his availability leads to another big question: How will he play?

Jackson, a limited participant in practice Wednesday and Thursday, has never come back from an injury this serious during the middle of the season. His ankle injury in 2021 was season-ending. So was his knee injury in 2022.

But Jackson has some experience gritting out wins at less than full strength. More often than not, he’s excelled:

• In Week 10 last season, he missed the second of two short-week practices because of a knee injury. He went on to finish with 323 yards of total offense and four touchdown passes in a shootout win over the Cincinnati Bengals.
• In Week 9 last season, he missed two of three practices because of back and knee injuries. He went on to post a perfect passer rating in a blowout win over the Denver Broncos.
• In Week 4 in 2021, he missed two of three practices because of a back injury. He went on to pass for 316 yards and a touchdown in a blowout win over the Broncos.
• In Week 5 in 2020, he missed two of three practices because of a knee injury and illness. He went on to pass for 180 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in a blowout win over the Bengals.

Out of necessity, Jackson adjusted his approach in each outing. He never rushed for more than 33 yards in any of those four games, instead relying on the Ravens’ running backs, defense and special teams to help carry the load.

If Jackson plays Sunday, his balancing act would require even more precision. Because the Ravens also play Thursday against the Miami Dolphins, he’d have just four days to recover from a potentially strenuous afternoon in Baltimore.

“I don’t think we’re thinking about it that way,” coach John Harbaugh said Wednesday. “We’re focused and locked in on Sunday’s game, and that’s it right now.”

2. Running back Derrick Henry grinned Wednesday when he mentioned his excitement over Jackson’s return to practice. He smiled even wider when a reporter asked about fullback Patrick Ricard’s imminent return to game action.

“He is a big, big reason why we had so much success last year, and we’re excited to have him back healthy and getting back going, so heck yes,” Henry said. “We’re definitely excited about that as well.”

Ricard, a five-time Pro Bowl selection, is expected to make his season debut Sunday. A nagging calf injury that Ricard first suffered in training camp kept him out of practice until Week 6, and he didn’t participate fully until Wednesday’s session. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken said after practice Thursday that he was “excited to get Pat back.”

Henry could be the Ravens’ biggest beneficiary. With Ricard on the field last season, Henry averaged 6.2 yards per carry, more than a yard higher than his current average (5.0), according to TruMedia. He finished with nearly as many rushing yards (1,324 yards) and first downs (68) as the Las Vegas Raiders did all last year.

The Bears’ run defense has struggled against heavier groupings this season, allowing 5.3 yards per carry against 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends and two wide receivers) and 6.2 yards per carry against 21 personnel (two backs, one tight end and two wide receivers). Just as worrisome for Chicago: Leading tackler Tremaine Edmunds was limited in practice Thursday after participating fully Wednesday, an indication that the linebacker either aggravated or suffered his ankle injury this week.

3. The Bears will start a No. 1 overall pick at quarterback (Caleb Williams). They have one of the NFL’s most highly paid wide receivers (D.J. Moore) and two other recent top-40 picks (Rome Odunze and Luther Burden) out wide. They have a first-round pick as their backup tight end (Colston Loveland).

And yet the Ravens’ biggest worry Sunday shouldn’t be Chicago’s passing game. It should be the Bears’ running game.

Over its four-game winning streak, Chicago has averaged 130.8 rushing yards per game while ranking third in the NFL in success rate and seventh in expected points added per carry, according to analytics site RBSDM.com. In their win Sunday over the New Orleans Saints, the Bears had 40 carries for 222 yards (5.5 per carry) and two touchdowns, led by running back D’Andre Swift (19 carries for 124 yards).

Over his three years as the Detroit Lions’ offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson helped design one of the NFL’s most innovative attacks. In his first year as Chicago’s coach, he’s relied on a rebuilt, big-money offensive line to help power the Bears’ much-improved rushing attack. And he won’t hesitate to test the Ravens’ run defense, which ranks 27th in success rate and 31st in EPA per carry since Week 3.

“It’s one of those games where we told our guys, ‘Look, you’re not going to be able to guess what run is coming because it’s probably going to be something different that we haven’t seen. We could tell you the basic core concept of the run, so you have to line up, you have to be aligned right, read your keys and go play football,’” Ravens defensive coordinator Zach Orr said Thursday.

Williams, meanwhile, is the Bears’ biggest variable. He’s thrown for nine touchdowns and three interceptions while averaging 225.2 passing yards per game this season, but his rates of on-target throws and catchable balls are among the lowest for a starting quarterback.

4. Inside linebacker Roquan Smith didn’t downplay his excitement Monday for the matchup against Chicago, where he played his first four-plus NFL seasons before a midseason trade in 2022. Smith has never faced the Bears over his 45 games with the Ravens.

“Lot of amazing people over there [that I] have a tremendous amount of respect [for], but obviously, it’s the team that’s on the schedule, and every team on the schedule has to get dealt with accordingly,” he said Monday.

Defensive coordinator Zach Orr said Thursday that Smith, a popular target for criticism this season amid the defense’s struggles, was “playing really good football for us” before his Week 4 hamstring injury against the Kansas City Chiefs. Orr added that, “deep down … he wants this one.”

In a news conference Wednesday with Chicago-area reporters, Johnson praised Smith’s quickness in diagnosing plays and getting to the ball. Smith had a game-high eight tackles and a pass defense in 2023 when the Ravens manhandled the Lions and their Johnson-coordinated offense in a 38-6 win.

“See ball, get ball, sideline to sideline,” Johnson said of Smith. “If our offensive lineman’s responsible for him in the running game, we’ve got to be on our horse because he’s fast and then he finds a way to shed. He finds a way to get around blocks and be around the football, so we’re going to have to do our best to cover him up. … He is playing at a super-high level, and I know they’ll welcome back on that defense. He’s going to help them out. “

5. Just how much could change over the next two weeks in the AFC North? A lot.

According to The New York Times’ playoff odds, the Ravens enter Week 8 with a 35% chance of winning the division, behind the division-leading Pittsburgh Steelers (51%).

If the Ravens beat the Bears on Sunday and the Dolphins on Thursday, their AFC North crown odds would rise to 42%. If the Steelers (4-2) also lose to the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night and the Indianapolis Colts in Week 9, those odds would jump even higher, to 51%, despite the Ravens still being a game back in the AFC North standings.

If the Ravens drop their next two games, however, and the Steelers win even one of their next two, the Ravens’ hopes of a three-peat would drop to 14%.