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The good news for the Ravens’ ground game: Despite entering Week 4 with maybe four encouraging quarters of production, they’re still 12th in the NFL in rushing yards.
The bad news: Despite having Lamar Jackson at quarterback, Derrick Henry at running back and four starting offensive linemen back, they’re still 12th in the NFL in rushing yards.
As the Ravens (1-2) prepare for Sunday’s game against the Kansas City Chiefs (1-2), Henry’s sudden fumbling habit — three in three games, including another lost fumble in the fourth quarter of their loss Monday to the Detroit Lions — is drawing the biggest headlines. But the problems in Baltimore are bigger than ball security.
Entering Week 4, the Ravens are 12th in the NFL in expected points added per rushing play, a measure of how much designed carries have contributed to their offense, and 19th in success rate, a measure of down-to-down productivity. Last year, according to analytics site RBSDM.com, they were first and fourth, respectively, through the season’s first three weeks. They finished 2024 ranked second in both metrics, behind only the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles.
The Ravens haven’t finished outside of the top five in either metric since 2021, when injuries depleted their running back corps in the preseason and sidelined Jackson late in the year.
“I think it’s hard if the expectation is that you’re going to set the standard at the expectation that we are going to be perfect — [that] you’re going to run for 300 yards every week,” coach John Harbaugh said Wednesday. “And if you don’t do that, then you’re not up to par. I just think that’s kind of unrealistic. There’s going to be games where you’re going to run the ball, there’s going to be games where you’re going to pass the ball, there’s going to be games where you’re going to get the ball downfield.”
However the Ravens have attacked defenses, they haven’t had much trouble scoring. They lead the NFL in points per game (37.0), almost double the Chiefs’ average (20.0).
Still, the Ravens’ vaunted running game has felt like a sideshow at times to Jackson’s passing attack and a work in progress at others.
Since rushing for 238 yards (8.2 per carry) and three touchdowns in a Week 1 loss to the Buffalo Bills, the Ravens have run into stiffer resistance. They finished with 21 carries for just 45 yards in a blowout win over the Cleveland Browns, who could have one of the NFL’s best defensive fronts. Then, on Monday, they had 19 carries for 85 yards and a touchdown against Detroit. In that two-game span, Henry has 23 carries for just 73 yards.
Last year, Henry’s first in Baltimore, the Ravens were held to fewer than 100 rushing yards just once, in a shootout Week 10 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. In 2023, they also finished below the century mark just once all year. Monday’s loss marked two straight games under that threshold.
Sustained success has been elusive for offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who’s had to make do without fullback Patrick Ricard and tight end Isaiah Likely. On the Ravens’ opening possession Monday, Henry had three carries for 36 yards, highlighted by a 28-yard touchdown. But he had just nine rushes for 14 yards the rest of the night. In the second quarter, on three straight runs from Detroit’s 3-yard line or closer, Henry got 2 yards, 0 yards and minus-1 yard. Jackson was sacked on the subsequent fourth-down play, preserving the Lions’ 14-7 lead.
“I think just executing, playing our style, doing what we do, what we have done, what they’ve done around here for years and just keep trusting and believing in one another” is important, Henry said Wednesday. “We have everybody to be explosive and have big plays in the run game and be physical, dominate the line of scrimmage. We’ve just got to go do it. Everybody practices hard. Nobody isn’t trying to do it. It’s just execution. We just have to go out there and do that.”
The problems have largely started up front. The Ravens rank 18th in ESPN’s run block win rate, down from third last year, and 15th in Sports Info Solutions’ blown-block rate on run plays, down from seventh. Their average yards before contact per carry, an indicator of the running lanes created for ball carriers, has also fallen slightly, from 2.24 yards last year (first in the NFL) to 1.98 yards (fifth), according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats.
Those downturns have added up to more stuffed runs at the line of scrimmage. Last year, the Ravens had just 14.6% of their runs stopped for no gain or negative yardage, tied for fifth best in the NFL. This year, they’re up to 21.7%, sixth-worst. Four of Henry’s final nine runs Monday were stuffed, and two of backup Justice Hill’s five carries this season have lost yardage.
The Ravens never need much of an invitation to get going, however, and they might find some power-ups Sunday inside Arrowhead Stadium. While the Chiefs are tied for 12th in yards per carry allowed (4.0) and haven’t been pierced by a run longer than 19 yards, they’re 29th in both EPA per run play and defensive success rate. New York Giants rookie running back Cam Skattebo had 10 carries for 60 yards and a touchdown in the team’s 22-9 loss Sunday to Kansas City.
The Ravens, even with their inconsistencies, should have an advantage up front. Henry’s Ravens debut came in Arrowhead Stadium last season, when he had 13 carries for 46 yards and a touchdown behind a still-jelling offensive line in a narrow Week 1 loss. It wasn’t long before the running game, and Henry, turned into the weapons the Ravens had imagined. Sunday would be a good time to flip another switch.
“Do we want to run better? You’re darn right we do,” Harbaugh said. “We also want to complete more passes, and we want to have more time of possession. We look at all of that stuff very, very thoroughly every game plan, and try to do the best we can with it when we go out there and play. But you have to go out there and play. It’s tough. It’s a competitive league.”
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