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The first third of the Ravens’ season did not go as planned. The middle third, however, is unfolding just as the Ravens needed it to.

After losing five of their first six games, the Ravens have won four straight heading into Sunday’s matchup with the New York Jets, rekindling their playoff hopes. Even with the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) leading the AFC North by a game, the Ravens (5-5) have emerged as the heavy favorites to win the division for a third straight year.

But these next seven weeks won’t be another cakewalk, not with games against the New England Patriots (8-2) and Green Bay Packers (6-3-1) and four divisional matchups looming. Here’s what reporters Jonas Shaffer and Giana Han, columnist Kyle Goon and “Banner Ravens Podcast” co-host Paul Mancano make of the state of the Ravens’ season.

How confident are you that Lamar Jackson can return to his MVP form this season?

Shaffer: I have my doubts. Jackson’s not running much this year, which wouldn’t be a problem if his passing were on point. But since returning from a hamstring injury in Week 9, Jackson ranks 25th among 32 qualifying quarterbacks in on-target rate on unpressured throws (70.8%), according to Sports Info Solutions. Last year, he ranked 17th among 31 qualifying quarterbacks (78.5%). Jackson and the Ravens are walking a tightrope with his injuries. If they can’t keep him healthy, and if they can’t raise his confidence that the offensive line will reliably protect him in the pocket, the ceiling of this talented offense falls precipitously.

Han: I’m confident Jackson can, I’m just less confident he will. Jackson is the same guy he was last year. He’s just as fast. His arm is just as strong, based on what he displays at practice and during the moments he has shined this season. But something is off. Part of it is his offensive line. But he doesn’t seem to be playing with the same focus as last season, and it doesn’t help that he’s been in and out of practice. If he can get on a roll, this offense could once again be unstoppable, offensive line or no offensive line, but I’ve been holding my breath every game, and it hasn’t happened yet.

Goon: I have wondered about Jackson’s level of play before around this time in the season, only later to rue my doubts. I’m not getting fooled this year. Jackson doesn’t look as healthy as he could be, and I’m definitely worried about the escapability and improvisation-in-the-pocket skills that elevate him from a great talent to a singular one. That being said, he’s still passing at a pretty high level, and there’s an opportunity to get better against defenses that aren’t as good as the two he just faced. With a few prime-time matchups left, I expect Lamar to vault himself back in the MVP conversation and make us question how he ever left.

Mancano: Another week, another midweek appearance on the injury report for Jackson, who missed Wednesday’s practice with an ankle injury. Couple it with the knee issue that kept him out of a practice last week, and it’s clear Jackson’s lower body isn’t 100%. He’s rushing for just 32.3 yards per game this season, which would mark a career low. Jackson doesn’t need to be a force on the ground in order to dominate, but I’m not sure he can reach supernova levels without his legs under him.

Which unit or position group is the Ravens’ biggest liability?

Shaffer: The struggles of the Ravens’ offensive line have been unmistakeable in the red zone. Just ask Tyler Linderbaum. “I think the No. 1 thing to be successful in the red zone, you have to be able to run the football effectively, which I don’t think we have been able to,” the Pro Bowl center said Wednesday. The Ravens have rushed for a first down or touchdown on less than a quarter of their designed red-zone carries this season, according to SIS, one of the NFL’s worst rates. And Jackson has been sacked on over 20% of his red-zone drop-backs, easily the NFL’s worst rate. If the Ravens can’t score touchdowns in the red zone, they won’t go far this season.

Han: I’m worried about this pass rush. Although the Ravens have been generating more and more pressure since their bye, they’ve made sacrifices to do it. Without a high level of talent at outside linebacker, they’ve thrown linebackers, cornerbacks and safeties at quarterbacks. And the Ravens have gotten away with it because those quarterbacks have been some of the NFL’s worst. But against better passers and better pass protectors, these holes will be taken advantage of. I’m sure most people will say the offensive line, but Jackson and Derrick Henry can make up for a lot in a way that Kyle Hamilton can’t.

Goon: I mean, come on. It’s the guards. We all know it’s the guards. We see week after week how they lose leverage, lose assignments or just aren’t in the right place at the right time. The trickle-down effect is significant, hurting the Ravens in the red zone and also on passing downs. Even stalwarts Ronnie Stanley and Tyler Linderbaum have seen their performances in pass blocking dip from last year in part because they’re compensating for how inconsistent Daniel Faalele and Andrew Vorhees are. It’s a problem that just will not go away, no matter how many times John Harbaugh insists they’re doing well.

Mancano: As worrying as the lack of pass rush has been for the Ravens’ defense, you can at least see a light at the end of the tunnel: The addition of Alohi Gilman has once again unlocked Kyle Hamilton as a blitzer, and Dre’Mont Jones has made an early impact. I can’t say the same for the offensive line. Barring a massive leap from rookie Emery Jones Jr., I’m not sure there are any ready-made replacements for Faalele or Vorhees. The Ravens are just gonna have to hope that group can undergo the same midseason rejuvenation it had last year.

How good, really, is this Ravens defense?

Shaffer: Ask me again after Thanksgiving. According to analytics site RBSDM.com, the defense is fourth in the NFL in both expected points added per play and success rate since Week 6, the Ravens’ first game with Alohi Gilman. But they’ve feasted on a truly historic run of mediocre quarterbacks in that stretch, a run of good luck that will continue through Sunday, when Tyrod Taylor and a dysfunctional Jets offense come to Baltimore. If the Ravens can hold Joe Flacco (or Joe Burrow) and the Bengals under 20 points next week, I’ll believe in this defense’s potential as a game-changing unit. But if Week 13 turns into a shootout, or if the turnovers start to dry up, it could be time to get realistic about the limitations of this defensive front.

Han: It’s better than what the Ravens showed at the start of the season, but it’s not a top unit yet. The Ravens’ rise has been aided by easy opponents: Caleb Williams and the Bears, Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins, J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings, and rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders and the Browns. I still think this defense has a lot of potential with the talent and the maturing rookies in its lineup, and getting Tavius Robinson and Ar’Darius Washington back can only help. But the lack of push in the trenches still worries me if the Ravens go up against a team like the Bills again.

Goon: I actually feel bullish on how this unit has evolved, in part because the Ravens are using Kyle Hamilton like a star again and making opponents fear his presence. Pass blockers have to worry about his blitzes. Receivers struggle with his physicality. He’s faster than a lot of tight ends. Teams now have to scheme away from him, which is always an advantage if you can close off half of the field by simply putting Hamilton on it. Dre’Mont Jones and a healthy Kyle Van Noy have been adding some needed pressure, and Mike Green should be getting better on pass-rushing downs. The alignment makes definitive sense, which is an improvement from how this thing started.

Mancano: The world-beating unit of 2023 is gone, and it’s not coming back. The Ravens’ defense of 2024 and 2025 is good against bad quarterbacks — Tagovailoa, Gabriel — and bad against good quarterbacks — Josh Allen, Jared Goff. Which is to say, it’s average. Luckily for the Ravens, there aren’t many star gunslingers left on the schedule who can take advantage of them.

Who needs to step up? And who has been the Ravens’ biggest surprise?

Shaffer: Daniel Faalele should be used to the criticism by now. After a disappointing performance in a Week 13 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles last season, he was one of the Ravens’ most maligned starters. But Faalele allowed just eight pressures over the team’s final six games, including the playoffs, according to Pro Football Focus, and graded out decently as a run blocker. The Ravens need him to find that form again, and fast.

This is a contract year for Faalele, after all — and for Jordan Stout, too, whom the Ravens drafted 20 spots after the hulking lineman in 2022. Now, after three nondescript seasons in Baltimore, Stout has blossomed into one of the NFL’s best punters. He’s third in the league in net punting average (45.1 yards) and has been one of the breakout stars for a special teams group that enters Week 12 ranked seventh in DVOA, according to FTN.

Han: Can I choose an entire position group to step up? This offensive line needs to find its edge and start fighting harder in the trenches. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: Losing Patrick Mekari should not have led to this big of a drop-off up front.

On the other end, I’d like to claim Teddye Buchanan hasn’t been a surprise, since I wrote a giant article on him in September. I expected him to be good. But I didn’t expect him to contribute this fast as a rookie. He’s been thrown into the fire, and he’s held up admirably well.

Goon: Do you know which Ravens corner has the highest PFF coverage grade? It’s Chidobe Awuzie, who entered organized team activities with barely any buzz at all, yet somehow managed to leapfrog Jaire Alexander and T.J. Tampa for the lion’s share of snaps behind Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins. He has been so quietly effective that it’s almost a surprise when he has a standout play like his breakup against the Browns in the end zone.

On the other side of things ... uh, where is DeAndre Hopkins? He had an insanely memorable debut in Buffalo, making one of the most difficult TD catches you’ll ever see, but he’s been pretty quiet this season, with just 13 catches for 219 yards. Even with Rashod Bateman out Sunday, he was not impactful, with one catch for 11 yards despite four targets. What makes even less sense is that Hopkins’ separation percentage of 67.4% is, according to PFF, the highest among NFL wideouts. The Ravens need that to translate into production somehow.

Mancano: There’s simply no excuse for the offensive line to continue playing at this poor a level. Ronnie Stanley’s near-weekly merry-go-round from the field to the medical tent aside, this group has largely stayed the same throughout the entire season. For all the talk of continuity being a factor in keeping the starting five together, it doesn’t seem to have helped.

As for a surprise, John Jenkins deserves a shoutout. At 36, he’s providing steady run defense with a little bit of pass rush juice to boot. This team has needed someone, anyone to step up after the loss of Nnamdi Madubuike, and Jenkins has given the Ravens more than they could have expected.

How do you expect the rest of the regular season to go? Do you consider the Ravens Super Bowl contenders?

Shaffer: If Jackson can stay healthy, I expect the Ravens to complete an AFC North three-peat by their regular-season finale in Pittsburgh. Whether the reward of a home game in the wild-card round will mean anything is another matter. Is there that much of a gap between the AFC’s three two-loss teams — the Broncos, Patriots and Colts — and the group of teams fighting for a wild-card berth below them — the Bills, Chargers and Chiefs? Doesn’t seem like it. The Ravens have the offensive pedigree to explode for 30-plus points in any game. They might finally have a defense that can frustrate other powerhouses. As long as Daniel Jones and Bo Nix are the quarterbacks of supposed AFC contenders, I think it’s fair to consider the Ravens contenders as well.

Han: I expect this to be a fight all the way to the end. I do think the Ravens make the playoffs, mostly because I don’t have much faith in the Steelers, but I don’t expect them to go far. It hurts to say that I don’t consider the Ravens Super Bowl contenders, since I picked them to win it all ahead of the season. But this team has not impressed me, even in its wins. The off-field atmosphere and on-field performances feel like a far cry from 2023 and 2024.

Goon: Understanding how soft the Ravens’ schedule is and how hard Pittsburgh’s is, I know why an AFC North title should be pretty automatic for Baltimore. But in sitting with the trauma of road trips past, I see the final two dates at Green Bay and at Pittsburgh and shiver. I fully expect the division battle to come down to the penultimate or final week, and if the Ravens need to win, I’d be worried about the pressure catching up to them in frigid, hostile environments. Even if this team breaks through, the Ravens need a lot of things to go right to get to the Super Bowl. I don’t trust any of the top contenders right now (yes, you, Broncos), but the Ravens are clearly flawed, and I don’t think I’d pick them to beat Kansas City (which is also in danger at 5-5) or Buffalo if it comes to that.

Mancano: I never sold my stock in the 2025 Ravens, and I’m not gonna do it now. The ceiling for this team is still as high as anyone else’s in the conference. Do the Patriots really strike you as a Super Bowl contender? Or the Broncos? The Chiefs are 5-5, and the Bills got smacked by the Dolphins two weeks ago. The Ravens are still among the AFC’s elite.