The last meaningful sight of the Ravens’ historic offense this regular season came and went in a flash Saturday night. There was Derrick Henry, taking a handoff on third-and-2 late in a blowout win over the Cleveland Browns. There went Derrick Henry, scoring from 43 yards out, hitting 19.17 mph at his top speed, reminding the football world just how potent the 2024 Ravens can be.
“We started off slow a little bit as an offense,” Henry said after the Ravens’ AFC North title-clinching 35-10 win in their regular-season finale, “but just had to get things going, and we finally did that in the end.”
The Ravens’ offense was not at its terrifying best inside M&T Bank Stadium. There were drops and penalties, blown blocks and questionable play calls. Still the Ravens rolled up 437 yards, the second most Cleveland’s once-proud defense had allowed all season. Still the Ravens averaged 0.09 expected points added per play, a 70th-percentile performance for all NFL offenses this season, according to TruMedia.
Now comes the hard part: turning a record-breaking regular season into a breakthrough postseason — and maybe having to do it without Zay Flowers at full strength. A minor right knee injury knocked the Pro Bowl wide receiver out of Saturday’s win early in the second quarter; Flowers was expected to undergo an MRI on Sunday morning.
“It’s something that he has a chance to be OK with,” said coach John Harbaugh, who didn’t offer a timeline for his potential return.
The Ravens didn’t need Flowers to beat up on the injury-depleted Browns, who were missing their top two interior defensive linemen, top two linebackers and top two cornerbacks. But the AFC’s playoff field will not be as forgiving.
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The top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs and second-seeded Buffalo Bills, the Ravens’ top competition for a conference championship, both have defenses ranked in the top 10 in weighted efficiency, according to FTN’s metrics, which emphasize more recent results. The Pittsburgh Steelers, who would come to Baltimore next weekend for a wild-card-round rematch if the Los Angeles Chargers beat the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, rank 13th overall. The Chargers, who need to beat the Raiders to avoid a cross-country trip, are 15th.
The third-seeded Ravens have the goods to outscore anyone. Or at least they did. Their offense entered Week 18 as one of the most efficient in league history, averaging an overwhelming 6.9 yards per play, and left Saturday night with even more records.
First team in NFL history to score 40 passing touchdowns and 20 rushing touchdowns in a season. First team to throw for 4,000 yards and rush for 3,000 yards. Quarterback Lamar Jackson fell short of the NFL’s single-season record for passer rating but became the first player in league history to reach 4,000 passing yards and 800 rushing yards. (He finished with a not-too-shabby 4,172 passing yards, 41 passing touchdowns and four interceptions, plus 915 rushing yards and four rushing scores.)
It’s Flowers, though, who’s helped make the Ravens’ run-pass balance possible. After leading the team in receiving as a first-round pick last season, he’d racked up a career-high 1,059 yards before his awkward first-half fall Saturday, emerging as a force multiplier in Todd Monken’s offense. Flowers’ route-running savvy makes him a reliable target. His speed stretches defenses. His quickness breaks ankles. His enthusiasm lifts the team’s energy. His ability makes everyone else’s job a little easier.
The Ravens have not had much reason to imagine life without him. Flowers played at least 70% of the team’s offensive snaps in 12 of the Ravens’ first 16 games, and three of those four exceptions were blowout wins. With Flowers and Jackson on the field in the regular season, according to TruMedia, the Ravens averaged 7.2 yards and 0.17 EPA per play and had an explosive-play rate of 16.5%, all marks that would’ve led the league.
Without Flowers, however, the offense suffered — relatively speaking, anyway. Just 6.3 yards per play, which would’ve tied for second. An explosive-play rate of just 12.5%, which would’ve tied for seventh. The Ravens’ EPA numbers and success rate, both measures of down-to-down efficiency, remained among the best in the NFL, too, but a prolonged absence would add another stressor to an already tense postseason mood in Baltimore.
“Obviously, that’s tough seeing a guy like Zay go down, especially for our offense,” wide receiver Tylan Wallace said. “But we have the faith in everybody that we have in our receiving room to go out there and make plays.”
The Ravens might not need Jackson to drop back at all if they can run like they did in the second half Saturday, or if they can defend like they have for the past two months. Henry, who finished with 138 rushing yards and two scores against Cleveland, has rushed for 447 yards (6.3 per carry) and three touchdowns over the past three weeks. Jackson has 172 rushing yards (7.8 per carry) and a touchdown in the same span. The Ravens finished the regular season averaging 5.7 yards per designed run overall, the best mark for any offense since at least 2000, according to TruMedia.
The Ravens’ defense, meanwhile, has almost caught up to its counterpart in sheer reliability. No unit has been stingier since Week 11, when coordinator Zach Orr paired Kyle Hamilton with Ar’Darius Washington at safety, and over the past 10 quarters, the Ravens have as many defensive touchdowns scored as touchdowns allowed (two).
“Complementary football, it’s so important,” said defensive lineman Michael Pierce, whose fourth-quarter interception capped another airtight performance from the unit. “Like Coach [Harbaugh] says and everybody preaches, December football, going into January, and then you just keep it rolling into February, complementary football. It’s all coming together, offense, defense, special teams. It’s all important and hopefully it continues to roll over next week, and next week, and next week, and next week. We had a blast today, it was good, but the real work starts now.”
The Ravens will know where they stand soon. By Sunday night, they should have Flowers’ prognosis and their playoff path. They figure to be solid favorites next weekend, no matter the matchup, no matter their health. Few other teams this season have been laid so low only to rise so high. Only fitting, then, that the Ravens will enter the postseason with another test of their fortitude.
“We’ve had our bumps and bruises, our ups and downs,” tight end Mark Andrews said. “But for us it’s just to be levelheaded and be true to the type of team that we are. I think right now we’re doing great. All sides are clicking. Complementary football — offense, defense, special teams. Just five weeks for the rest of your life. Just take advantage of that, understand what it is. Just focus. All that matters to us is this team, this organization, this group of men.”
Said Jackson: “We just got something to do. We’ve got things to finish.”
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