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The New England Patriots cannot extinguish the Ravens’ playoff hopes Sunday night, but M&T Bank Stadium would be a fitting place to mark the beginning of the end.

Good teams defend their home turf. Even average Ravens teams have defended theirs; only two of the franchise’s first 29 seasons ended with a losing home record. But these Ravens, Super Bowl favorites only months ago, are 3-5 in Baltimore entering their regular-season home finale.

“If this is going to be our last one, let’s go all in,” safety Alohi Gilman said. “Same mentality — ‘do or die trying’ — and this is it. Hopefully, the Ravens community can hop along with us on that, and it’ll be fun.”

The irony, of course, is that Sunday doesn’t have to be the 2025 Ravens’ last ride at M&T Bank Stadium. A win over the AFC East-leading Patriots would move them one step closer toward a potential AFC North title and a guaranteed home game in the wild-card round.

Gilman grinned when a reporter pointed out the possibility. He hadn’t looked that far down the road. “If that’s what it is, then that’s what it is,” he said. “We’re going to go down swinging ... no matter what.”

As the Ravens (7-7) and New England (11-3) prepare for their “Sunday Night Football” matchup, here’s what to watch in Week 16. All stats are courtesy of Sports Info Solutions, Pro Football Focus and the NFL’s Next Gen Stats unless otherwise noted.

1. By kickoff Sunday night, the Ravens should know how badly they need a win.

If the Steelers (8-6) win their late-afternoon game against the Detroit Lions, the Ravens would likely need to beat both the Patriots and the Green Bay Packers in Week 17 to force a winner-take-all rematch in Pittsburgh in Week 18. If the Steelers beat Detroit and finish off a sweep of the Cleveland Browns in Week 17 — Pittsburgh cruised in its first matchup, 23-9 — the Ravens’ AFC North title hopes would crumble with one loss in their next two games.

If the Steelers lose in Detroit, however, the Ravens would have some margin for error. Because of the NFL’s tiebreaker scenarios, the Ravens would need to win only one of their next two games to set up a de facto AFC North title game in their regular-season finale. (A Pittsburgh win in Detroit and loss in Cleveland would have the same effect.)

“I think it’s just like last week,” running back Derrick Henry said Thursday. “We have to win every single game. It’s like we’re in the playoffs right now. Every single game matters, and you have to win every single one of them.”

2. The Ravens’ run defense started the season as one of the NFL’s worst before rounding into form as one of the best. The Patriots have gone the other way.

Over the season’s first nine weeks, New England ranked second in yards per carry allowed (3.6), fourth in expected points added per run play and fifth in success rate, according to analytics site RBSDM.com. Since Week 10, however, it’s ranked 26th in yards per carry allowed (4.8), 30th in EPA per run play and 31st in success rate. The Buffalo Bills rushed for 168 yards (4.5 per carry) and two touchdowns in their comeback win Sunday, the fifth straight opponent to finish with at least 110 yards on the ground against New England.

The Patriots’ problems started before they lost defensive lineman Milton Williams, a key offseason acquisition, to injured reserve after a Week 11 ankle injury. But his absence hasn’t helped.

Neither have other injuries. Defensive lineman Khyiris Tonga, who’s third on the team in run stops, missed Week 13 and Week 14 with a chest injury before returning Sunday. Inside linebacker Robert Spillane, who leads the team in tackles and run stops, didn’t play a snap against Buffalo because of an ankle injury and hasn’t practiced this week.

The Ravens are poised to take advantage of a depleted front. They’ve averaged 203 rushing yards over their past two games, and Henry typically gets harder to stop the deeper into the season he plays.

“He’s a threat no matter what the temperature is, but I do think that as the temperature drops, or the weather changes, the running game certainly comes to the forefront,” offensive coordinator Todd Monken said Thursday. “I think he’s a hard guy to tackle. I think we’ve played well at the back end of the year. I think the statistics would back that up. And when you’re playing well, that means you’re ahead, and you’re running in the third and fourth quarter, and you’re wearing down the defense.”

3. How can the Ravens fix their red-zone offense? By facing a red-zone defense that might be even worse.

The Patriots have allowed touchdowns on a league-worst 75% of opponents’ red-zone drives this season. The Bills went 5-for-6 on Sunday, and their only failed possession came at the end of their win, when they ran out the clock at New England’s 14-yard line.

The Ravens largely avoided the red zone Sunday in their win over the Cincinnati Bengals, scoring twice on explosive pass plays and once on a defensive touchdown. But they went 0-for-1 in their lone trip inside the 20, dropping their season-long touchdown rate to 44%. Only the New Orleans Saints (43.2%) have fared worse.

“I feel like we execute a lot in practice,” quarterback Lamar Jackson said. “We just have to push the envelope in the game, because we have opportunities. We just don’t take advantage.”

4. New England quarterback Drake Maye is having a Jackson-esque second year, emerging as an NFL Most Valuable Player favorite and a pain to game-plan against.

His one obvious weakness — taking sacks — will invite its own set of problems Sunday: How many pass rushers can the Ravens afford to send after a quarterback who routinely beats the blitz and throws one of the league’s best deep balls?

Maye has been sacked 43 times this season, fourth-most in the NFL, but just 13 of those sacks have come against blitzes. Overall, against five or more pass rushers, he’s 79-for-114 (69.3%) for 1,031 yards, 10 touchdowns and no interceptions.

The Ravens sacked Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow twice Sunday on non-blitzes, but overall, since acquiring outside linebacker Dre’Mont Jones in Week 10, they rank just 17th in pressure rate (35.2%) and 30th in sack rate (3.0%) on standard rushes.

Blitzes also typically leave cornerbacks exposed, alone on an island. Maye’s deep-ball accuracy — or lack thereof — could determine how often the Ravens take their chances with one-on-one coverage. Over the first eight weeks of the season, Maye was a historically good downfield passer, completing 15 of 21 passes (71.4%) of at least 20 air yards.

But his accuracy has fallen back to earth in the Patriots’ six games since. Maye’s just 8-for-26 on deep passes and has thrown more interceptions (two) than touchdowns (one) in that span.

“Obviously, there’s a reason why he was a top-five pick,” defensive coordinator Zach Orr said Thursday. “He can make every throw. He can throw on the run. He moves better than what I even remember of him coming out [of college]. So he extends plays. He’s just a real good player, and you can see why he has the MVP hype, and why they’ve won 11 games, because he’s their best player.”

5. The Ravens have taken a while to get going on offense this season. Another slow start could leave them in a big hole. But an early lead could give them a big advantage.

The Ravens rank 27th in the NFL in first-quarter scoring (3.5 points per game) and 25th in first-half scoring (9.7 points per game). They’ve scored just one touchdown on their opening possession since Week 4, a 28-yard carry by Henry in Week 13 against a historically bad Bengals defense.

The Patriots, meanwhile, have gotten into gear early. They rank second in first-quarter scoring (6.7 points per game) and first in first-half scoring (16.7 points per game). New England led Buffalo 24-7 at halftime on Sunday after taking a 21-0 lead midway through the second quarter.

Jackson on Thursday attributed the Ravens’ early-game struggles to “inconsistency, basically.” He added: “I felt like this past game, we did a lot better, but [the Bengals offense] just had a long drive, so we couldn’t get on the field. They were converting and stuff like that, but our defense played lights out. I can’t call it why we start off slow and why sometimes we start off fast. Hopefully, this game, we start off fast and finish faster.”

The second half has been a different story for both teams. The Ravens rank third in second-half scoring (14.2 points per game). The Patriots, meanwhile, rank 22nd (10.6 points per game) and have averaged just 6.3 points after halftime over their past three games.