Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield were very different quarterbacks when they met in Baltimore 23 months ago. Neither of the old AFC North rivals had signed a nine-figure contract extension. Neither had landed in an offense optimized for his skill set. Neither was leading one of the NFL’s highest-scoring attacks.

The final score of that Week 11 encounter two seasons ago — Ravens 13, Carolina Panthers 3 — stands in stark contrast to what seems possible, if not downright likely, Monday night. Jackson’s Ravens (4-2) are fourth in the NFL in points per game (29.5). Mayfield’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2) are tied for second (29.7). Prepare for a lot of cannon fire at Raymond James Stadium.

“I love his game,” said Jackson, who has been linked to Mayfield, a fellow Heisman Trophy winner, since they were drafted in 2018, Mayfield by the Cleveland Browns (No. 1 overall) and Jackson by the Ravens (No. 32). “He’s still the same person from what I see. From afar, he’s still the same Baker. He’s still making things happen.”

The Ravens are used to quarterback duels by now. Tampa Bay will be the last in a long-winding gauntlet of offenses on the Ravens’ early-season schedule — and maybe the most unexpected. Here’s what to watch in the teams’ Week 7 matchup in Tampa, Florida.

1. On Thursday, Jackson was asked to explain the quintessential Lamar Jackson stat. You know the one: After last Sunday’s win over the Washington Commanders, Jackson is 22-1 against NFC teams as a starter, the best record by a quarterback against an opposing conference in NFL history.

“Just an all-around team effort, game-planning,” Jackson said. He speculated that the infrequent matchups made it “hard to game-plan for us. So a little bit of everything.”

The record is, of course, a Lamar Jackson stat. In those 23 starts, he’s averaged 205.7 passing yards on 64.8% accuracy, throwing 35 touchdowns and just nine interceptions, according to TruMedia. He’s also averaged 74 rushing yards per game and 6.3 yards per carry. Overall, Jackson’s 0.16 expected points added per play is the fourth-highest mark for any regular starting quarterback against NFC teams since 2018.

But the record is also a Ravens defense stat. Since 2018, the team ranks first in the NFL in yards per game allowed (303.3), points per game allowed (17.4) — nearly three points clear of the runner-up — points per drive allowed (1.6) and defensive success rate (58%) against NFC opponents. The Ravens also rank tied for second in yards per play allowed (5.1).

2. The last time the Ravens played at night, they battered a Buffalo Bills defense that wasn’t used to playing with heavier personnel. In their return to prime time, the Ravens will face a Buccaneers defense that’s used to playing with heavier personnel but hasn’t been any good at it.

Tampa Bay has played 130 snaps in its “base” defense (four defensive backs) this season, third most in the NFL, partly out of necessity. The Buccaneers’ early-season schedule featured games against the Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints and the Commanders, all of whom are comfortable lining up with two tight ends or a fullback on offense.

Tampa Bay’s defense, which has dealt with injuries to key starters, rarely had its way. In base personnel, it allowed 6 yards per play, a mark that would rank third overall among NFL defenses. Its success rate (the percentage of plays with positive expected points added) is 27th in the league, and its explosive-play rate (runs of at least 12 yards and completions of at least 16 yards) is 28th.

All of which makes the Ravens a nightmare matchup. With coordinator Todd Monken leaning into heavier personnel groupings, only a handful of offenses have faced base personnel more often this season. Although the Ravens rank only eighth in EPA per play and 11th in success rate against those four-DB looks, they’re third in explosive-play rate (14.5%).

“They’re very good at it [running the ball], but when you crowd up too much on that, then Lamar is a very good passer,” Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles told local reporters Wednesday. “He’s going to throw the football, and they’ve got a lot of speed on the outside, so we’ve got to be careful both ways.”

3. Defenses might finally be sick of blitzing Jackson. Over the past three seasons, as the Ravens struggled for reliable answers, he ranked seventh, first and eighth, respectively, leaguewide in blitz rate among qualifying quarterbacks. This year, Jackson’s down to 19th (28.7% of drop-backs).

The risk for defenses has never been greater. When facing five or more pass rushers this season, Jackson has completed 69.6% of his passes for 542 yards (a stellar 9.7 per attempt), two touchdowns and an interception and taken just one sack. Against the Commanders, he went 10-for-11 for 162 yards, with the one incompletion coming after an unlucky bounce off tight end Mark Andrews’ hands was picked off. Jackson’s overall EPA per drop-back against the blitz (0.31) is fourth in the NFL.

“That’s how you want it to be,” center Tyler Linderbaum said Friday. “You’ve got to prove that you can be effective when they’re blitzing against you. Obviously, for defenses, it’s high risk, high reward. The sooner you beat the pressure and the blitzes, the less likely they are to do it. Now, some DCs [defensive coordinators], they’re going to keep doing it, keep doing it.”

The Ravens’ next three games could show just how much respect Jackson has earned as a blitz beater. Tampa Bay ranks seventh in the NFL in blitz rate (33.6%). The Cleveland Browns, whom the Ravens will face in Week 8, are second (42.1%). The Denver Broncos, their Week 9 opponent, lead the league (44.3%).

4. On paper, the Buccaneers would seem to be a bad matchup for the Ravens’ secondary. Tampa Bay is sixth in the NFL in explosive-pass-play rate (15%). The Ravens’ defense ranks 28th, allowing explosives on 12.6% of drop-backs.

But Mayfield (NFL-best 15 passing touchdowns) finds chunk plays in atypical ways. The Ravens have allowed an NFL-worst 25 completions of at least 16 air yards. Tampa Bay has 31 explosive pass plays — but just nine of them were caught at least 16 yards downfield.

The Buccaneers’ best work typically comes closer to the line of scrimmage, bolstered by a strong screen game and dynamic open-field threats. Tampa Bay’s third in the NFL in yards after the catch per completion (7.1) and has a league-leading 20 completions with at least 20 yards after the catch. Wide receiver Chris Godwin had 99 yards after the catch alone in their win last Sunday over the New Orleans Saints, adding to his league-leading total (324 yards).

“You have to tackle,” Ravens defensive coordinator Zach Orr said Friday. His unit ranks near the league average in yards allowed after the catch (5.3) but is No. 1 in Pro Football Focus’ tackling grade. “You have to tackle in space, and they’re one of the top RAC [run after catch] teams in the league. Those dudes do a good job of getting north and south when they catch the ball. All of those guys have mean stiff arms, so we have to get a lot of hats to the ball. We have to get 11 hats to the ball, corral them and then eliminate the yards after the catch, because that’s where they make a lot of their plays.”

5. The Ravens’ white-hot offense has the team and several standouts on the verge of milestone days.

• The Ravens can become the first team in the Super Bowl era to record at least 150 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in each of its first seven games. The Buccaneers, however, haven’t allowed more than 139 yards in a game in 2024.
• With another touchdown catch, Andrews would break a tie with tight end Todd Heap (41) for the most in franchise history. Tampa Bay has only the 29th-best pass defense against tight ends, according to FTN’s efficiency metrics.
• With a third straight game of 100 yards receiving, wide receiver Zay Flowers would tie Andrews and former wide receiver Qadry Ismail for the longest such streak in franchise history. One Buccaneers starting cornerback, Jamel Dean, has been ruled out because of a hamstring injury, but Zyon McCollum has graded out as PFF’s top cornerback in coverage this season.
• With a third straight game of 300 yards passing, Jackson would set the record for the longest such streak in franchise history. In the two games star safety Antoine Winfield Jr. has started, wins over the Commanders and Saints, Tampa Bay has allowed just 191.5 yards per game.
• With a rushing touchdown, Ravens running back Derrick Henry would become the sixth player in NFL history and first since Emmitt Smith in 1994 to record one in each of his team’s first seven games. The Buccaneers have allowed eight rushing scores this year.